Thursday Night DFS Single-Game Breakdown: Rams at Seahawks

Thursday Night DFS Single-Game Breakdown: Rams at Seahawks

It's a big early-season showdown in the NFC West and while the San Francisco 49ers might be sitting in first, it's likely the winner of the Thursday Night football game between the 3-1 Los Angeles Rams and the 3-1 Seattle Seahawks will have a huge leg up on who wins the divisional crown later in the season. It's expected to be a high-scoring, close game so let's break it down and see how we can find the edge that might get us at the top of the leaderboards.

Injuries

  • There are no notable injuries at the time of publication of this article. I will update if any news breaks before kickoff.

Evaluation of Vegas Spread and Total

Seattle -2 Over/Under 49

The home-field advantage is enough for Vegas to give the slight nod to the Seahawks in what is expected to be a high-scoring game. While for the most part, I can get behind this, I can also see some scenarios where the run-oriented Seahawks slow the game down and we see a lower scoring game. As such, I'm including what is the more likely probability in parentheses compared to the predicted probability of the Vegas line.

  • Close, low-scoring game (<40 points) - 0% (20%)
  • Close, average-scoring game (40-49 points) - 40% (30%)
  • Close, high-scoring game (50+ points) - 30% (20%)
  • Blowout for the home team, low-scoring game - 0% (10%)
  • Blowout for the home team, average-scoring game - 10% (5%)
  • Blowout for the home team, high-scoring game - 10% (5%)
  • Blowout for the away team, low-scoring game - 0% (0%)
  • Blowout for the away team, average-scoring game - 5% (5%)
  • Blowout for the away team, high-scoring game - 5% (5%)
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