Monday Night DFS Single-Game Breakdown: Browns at Jets

Monday Night DFS Single-Game Breakdown: Browns at Jets

The Jets blew a big lead last week against the Buffalo Bills and as if that wasn't bad enough they found out earlier this week their franchise QB, Sam Darnold, would be out for several weeks with mono. The visiting Cleveland Browns were already favorites, but that news made them substantial favorites in a game that Vegas now expects them to handle easily.

Let's break down the game and how we can find the edge that might get us at the top of the leaderboards.

Injuries

The Jets have been grounded with their starting QB out with mono for at least a few weeks which means Trevor Siemian will get the start. That's not a good thing. Quincy Enunwa is also out for the season meaning more targets for Robby Anderson and Jamison Crowder (not sure that's possible). Everyone else is on track to play including Le'Veon Bell who gave fantasy owners a brief scare when he went in for an MRI earlier this week.

Evaluation of Vegas Spread and Total

Cleveland -6.5 Over/Under 44

Vegas doesn't see a lot of points being scored in this game, especially from the home-team Jets. Let's look at the likely game flow given this spread and total and assign some probabilities to each potential outcome.

  • Close, low-scoring game (<40 points) - 20%
  • Close, average-scoring game (40-49 points) - 20%
  • Close, high-scoring game (50+ points) - 0%
  • Blowout for the home team, low-scoring game - 0%
  • Blowout for the home team, average-scoring game - 0%
  • Blowout for the home team, high-scoring game - 0%
  • Blowout for the away team, low-scoring game - 25%
  • Blowout for the away team, average-scoring game - 25%
  • Blowout for the away team, high-scoring game - 10%

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