Thursday Night DFS Single-Game Breakdown: Colts at Texans

Thursday Night DFS Single-Game Breakdown: Colts at Texans

We have a game with massive playoff implications this Thursday night as the 6-4 Indianapolis Colts visit the 6-4 Houston Texans. The winner will take over sole possession of first place in the AFC South. With Marlon Mack out for the Colts, there are some decisions to be made at the RB position for the visitors. 

Let's break down the game and how we can find the edge that might get us at the top of the leaderboards.

Injuries

Marlon Mack being out was expected heading into the game and that leads to a three-man committee between Jordan Wilkins, Jonathan Williams and Nyheim Hines. Figuring out how that works might be the difference in determining the winning lineups this week. The other key injury to keep an eye on is Will Fuller, who is considered a game-time decision. If he is unable to go, Keke Coutee becomes a viable value option. If Fuller does play, that removes Coutee from consideration and makes Fuller a sneaky high-upside play.

Evaluation of Vegas Spread and Total

Houston -3.5 Over/Under 45.5

The Texans are modest favorites at home in what Vegas expects to have average scoring. I think there is some potential for a shootout and my analysis will reflect that. Let's look at the likely game flow given this spread and total and assign some probabilities to each potential outcome.

  • Close, low-scoring game (<40 points) - 25%
  • Close, average-scoring game (40-49 points) - 50%
  • Close, high-scoring game (50+ points) - 25%
  • Blowout for the home team, low-scoring game - 0%
  • Blowout for the home team, average-scoring game - 0%
  • Blowout for the home team, high-scoring game - 0%
  • Blowout for the away team, low-scoring game - 0%
  • Blowout for the away team, average-scoring game - 0%
  • Blowout for the away team, high-scoring game - 0%
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