FantasyDraft Week 11 Value Plays
Each week, I offer my favorite plays for the Sunday slate on FantasyDraft. 4for4’s Lineup Generator allows users to quickly pinpoint the top values at each position and I will expand on how each player is best deployed, whether it’s by game type, as part of a stack or simply a core value across all formats. Note that FantasyDraft is a full-PPR site with yardage bonuses but the roster requires only two wide receivers and implements two FLEX positions.
Lamar Jackson ($13,900) vs. Texans
Jackson is the most expensive quarterback on the main slate but when you consider his expectation relative to the field, it’s clear why he is the top value at his position—Lamar is $500 more than this week’s QB2 but he is projected for 3.5 points more than any quarterback on the slate. As the only quarterback on this slate with at least 14 FantasyDraft points in every game, his consistency and floor are unmatched. With an implied point total near 28 against a Houston defense ranked in the bottom 10 in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed (aFPA) to quarterbacks, Jackson is worth paying up for.
Dak Prescott ($12,600) @ Lions
The Lions rank 29th against quarterbacks when adjusted for strength of schedule but they are getting progressively worse as the season goes on—over the last six weeks, no defense has allowed more fantasy points per attempt than Detroit. Prescott ranks in the top five this season in the same efficiency metric and he should see little resistance against one of the worst pass-rushing units in the league.
Josh Jacobs ($13,900) vs. Bengals
Since Oakland’s Week 6 bye, only five running backs have averaged more FantasyDraft points per game than Jacobs and it can largely be attributed to his role in this offense. In that span, Jacobs has accounted for 46.3% of Oakland’s offensive touches, the sixth-highest rate in the league and has touched the ball at least 17 times in each game. The Raiders are favored for only the second time all year and it’s by double digits against a Bengals defense ranked 31st in running back aFPA.
Brian Hill ($10,200) @ Panthers
Hill saw 21 touches in relief of Devonta Freeman last week and that was after Freeman had already accumulated 13 himself. With Freeman and Ito Smith both out this week, Hill will get the vast majority of the backfield work against the biggest run funnel in the league. Carolina ranks fifth in quarterback aFPA but 29th against running backs.
D.J. Moore ($11,000) vs. Falcons
Over the past month, only two wide receivers have seen a higher target share than Moore, who is accounting for nearly 30% of Carolina’s targets in that span. Despite that volume, 18 receivers are priced higher than Moore this week, presumably because he’s had trouble finding the end zone. That could change soon. Moore is currently in the midst of a four-game streak with nine targets in each but no touchdowns. Since the beginning of 2015, only 10 other players have had the same four-game streak. Only two players have five such games in a row and just one has six straight. The Falcons secondary is the perfect medicine and Moore will mostly be matched up against Isaiah Oliver, who is allowing the 10th-most fantasy points per target among Week 11 starting corners.
Michael Thomas ($16,900) vs. Buccaneers
Thomas’s price tag is astronomical but the 4for4 optimal lineup likes jamming him in for his best matchup of the year. Tampa Bay ranks last in aFPA to wide receivers and Thomas will draw Sean Murphy-Bunting in coverage, the Bucs’ newest weakest link now that Vernon Hargreaves is gone. Only eight corners starting in Week 11 have allowed more fantasy points per target than Murphy-Bunting. As the league leader in targets and the only player with at least a quarter of his team’s targets in every game, Thomas’s consistency is unmatched at the position.
Greg Olsen ($7,700) vs. Falcons
This slate is missing arguably the five best players at the position so it’s a good week to pay down and take some risk at tight end. Olsen is one of the few tight ends available on the main slate averaging at least six targets per game and he is coming off of a 10-target game in Week 10. Carolina is a significant home favorite, an underrated plus for tight ends.
Gerald Everett ($7,000) vs. Bears
Most fantasy owners will probably be surprised to find out that only two tight ends have seen a higher target share over the last month than Everett, who is now averaging over six targets per game. He’s the only tight end on the slate that sees any kind of consistent volume who also has a plus matchup—Chicago ranks 28th in aFPA to tight ends. Los Angeles is favored by seven points at home.
Defense and Special Teams
When adjusted for strength of schedule, no team has given up more fantasy points to opposing defenses than the Dolphins. Miami’s offensive line ranks in the bottom three in adjusted sack rate allowed and only three Week 11 starters have a higher interception rate than Ryan Fitzpatrick. Buffalo is favored by 5.5 points.
Owners trying to afford players such as Michael Thomas or Christian McCaffrey this week are going to need to punt a couple of roster spots and Washington is a reasonable pay-down defense, despite how good they are at real football. The Redskins are favored for just the second time all year and they are at home against a Jets team ranked 30th in aFPA to opposing defenses. New York allows the second-highest adjusted sack rate in the league and no quarterback has a higher interception rate than Sam Darnold.