Streaming Quarterbacks: Week 1 Targets
We’re back! The offseason has made most of the community battle-hardened. We’ve had rookie debates at nearly every position. Kyler Murray and Kliff Kingsbury have kept their bag of tricks from the league and are set to take on the league in 2019. N'Keal Harry started off in a prime situation but now finds himself on short-term IR. From Damien Williams vs. Carlos Hyde to Damien Williams vs. LeSean McCoy, the conversations never stopped after the Super Bowl. If anything, they’ve crescendoed as information has been made available. But Week 1 is finally upon us. It’s time to recheck our rosters or (for those that waited) rethink our draft strategy and check what’s available on the waiver wire.
If you’ve read any of my work in the past, I focus on strategy. Historical trends and isolating traits for optimal drafting and navigating the waiver wire have been a part of every piece I’ve written. Each week throughout the regular season, we’ll pull in multiple pieces of data from game totals to weather conditions to find the best streaming candidates of the week. The process and logic will highlight the best plays given a few reasonable constraints. As injuries and offensive situations change, so will our expectations regarding the outcomes of the recommendations. Now, let’s dive into Week 1.
First, let’s visit 4for4’s Schedule-Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed ranks which are updated each week. The calculated adjustments remove schedule bias, but they are still based on last season’s performance. Rosters have been turned over and injuries are at a minimum. The ranks should carry more weight after a few weeks of action, but they’re a fine starting point for this week’s exercise.
We’ll review injuries, but here are the guidelines that will be used each week to find viable options on the waiver wire:
- Only quarterbacks with no more than a 40% ownership in Yahoo leagues considered.
- Ancillary metrics and game conditions (e.g. defensive ranking, weather) will be factored into the analysis.
- Positive matchups for all pass catchers to be considered.
- 4for4 rankings should always be consulted for league-specific decisions.
Key Defensive Injuries:
Once the season commences, this section will highlight the major injuries impacting their squads. However, after the preseason concluded, that list was quite long, so a roll-up is provided here:
|Robert Alford, Chiefs (Leg)||Sheldon Rankins, Saints (Achilles)|
|Oren Burks, Packers (Pectoral)||Joe Haden, Steelers (Ankle)|
|Kevin King, Packers (Hamstring)||Sean Davis, Steelers (Ankle)|
|Kenny Moore, Colts (Thumb)||Bud Dupree, Steelers (Hand)|
|Marcell Dareus, Jaguars (Elbow)||Harrison Smith, Vikings (Undisclosed)|
|Tyrann Mathieu, Chiefs (Shoulder)||Linval Joseph, Vikings (Upper Body)|
|Uchenna Nwosu, Chargers (Abdomen)||A.J. Klein, Saints (Undisclosed)|
Teams with a high aFPA and additional injuries will be integrated into the process for finding streaming candidates in future weeks. For now, we’ll monitor these situations and refer back to them in Week 2.
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