DFS Projected Ownership Analysis: Week 9

Oct 31, 2018

The Week 9 NFL DFS Projected Ownership Analysis article highlights discrepancies between 4for4 player projections and projected ownership.

Leveraging ownership percentages is a crucial aspect of creating tournament lineups. In this article I will be using the 4for4 metric GPP Leverage Scores to highlight players whose projected ownership is either too high or too low. You can get a complete explanation on how the metric works here, but in short, the leverage score takes projected ownership and compares it to an implied ownership. The projected ownership is the prediction of what percentage of lineups a particular player will be owned in. A player’s implied ownership is 4for4’s recommended ownership based on salary, point projection, positional scarcity, among other factors. Comparing the two ownership percentages can highlight players who 4for4 projections are higher or lower on relative to the field.

Players to Be Overweight On

QB Deshaun Watson ($7,900 FD/$6,300 DK)

Deshaun Watson endured a brutal stretch of defenses to go along with a collapsed lung and bruised chest. He’s had ten days to rest up for the Broncos’ fifth-ranked defense in terms of aFPA to quarterbacks. The narrative will be that the Texans will pound the ball with Lamar Miller since the Broncos are struggling to stop the run, which may be true. The idea is to take advantage of the ceiling that Deshaun Watson possesses while the public isn’t rostering him. Watson has only attempted an average of 23 passes over his last three outings. Furthermore, he hasn’t run the ball much either. It’s evident Bill O’Brien called plays to protect Watson from further injury. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Watson revert back to taking off and running a bit more in this one with the extra rest he received this week. Losing Will Fuller hurts, but Watson's ceiling compared to projected ownership can’t be ignored in Week 9.