Streaming Quarterbacks: Week 6 Targets

Streaming Quarterbacks: Week 6 Targets

By Chris Allen (4for4 Contributor), last update Oct 9, 2018

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Chris Allen comes from an analytical background, leveraging his data skills with his multiple years of experience across different formats (e.g. seasonal redraft, DFS, MFL10). He has tested weather effects and its impact on games, player output variance, and the validity of the associated narratives. Chris can be heard as co-host on the Dynasty Manual podcast.

Follow Chris Allen on Twitter: @ChrisAllenFFWX.

We don’t know everything. Analysts prognosticate, researchers dig into the numbers, and fantasy GMs get those ‘gut feelings’. But before that roster slot locks, the feeling of the unknown crawls over us. “The #Process will keep me safe!”, we shout at our laptops. Results can either validate and reinforce or cause us to navel gaze contemplating why we set a lineup. Having a process matters. It’s the black box we hunt for in the wreckage of our 75-point-total roster to see what went awry. The adjustments are what make us better players and see the game in new light whether it be a new stat or a glimpse of talent shown on film. The information is there. We just have to keep our minds open to having our beliefs challenged.

Last week’s top recommendation was Blake Bortles. If you watched the game, I’m sorry, but for those that wanted to wait were rewarded. Bortles scored 20.6 fantasy points and finished as Week 5’s QB10. Bortles encapsulates the disconnect between fantasy and real football, but that doesn’t mean we can’t take advantage. Let’s look at what Week 6 has for us.

First, let’s visit 4for4’s Schedule-Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed. The ranks are updated each week. Noticeable changes in schedule-adjusted points allowed from Week 5 to Week 6 include:

  • SEA up from 19.9 to 16.5 
  • JAC up from 15.4 to 12.6
  • CAR down from 14.9 to 17.9
  • NYJ down from 1.0 to 17.9

Injuries and personnel changes have altered our views on many of the defenses originally viewed as positive matchups to target. Defenses are discussed above, and injuries are discussed in the section below. As always, the other guidelines include:

  • Only quarterbacks with no more than a 40 percent ownership in Yahoo leagues considered.
  • Ancillary metrics and game conditions (e.g. defensive ranking, weather) will be factored into the analysis.
  • Positive matchups for all pass catchers to be considered.
  • 4for4 rankings should always be consulted for league-specific decisions.

Key Defensive Injuries:

Sam Shields, Rams (Shoulder) – Shields left in the early second half of their game against the Seahawks. The severity is unknown, but if out for Week 6, it does make Denver’s outside receivers more appealing.

Buster Skrine, Jets (Head) – Skrine is currently in the concussion protocol with no word on his availability for Week 6. His plays on the interior against both Royce Freeman and Emmanuel Sanders could be a liability for the Jets in Week 6 with Andrew Luck coming to town.

Adam Jones, Broncos (Leg) – Head Coach Vance Joseph’s post-game press conference revealed Jones suffered a hamstring injury. Jones had been dealing with both thigh and hamstring injuries earlier in the season. With a rookie covering for Jones, the once-vaunted Broncos defense takes yet another step back with no time to rest with the Rams coming to Denver in Week 6.

Top Streaming Picks

Jameis Winston at Falcons

You might look at this recommendation and immediately want to close the page. His return to action midway through Week 4 was not great…if you look at the box score. His first interception came off a tipped pass to Desean Jackson as Khalil Mack beat the right tackle as Winston was throwing. The second came late in the 4th quarter, down 38 points, and he misread the coverage as the linebacker dropped back into zone coverage. By the time Winston took over the score was 3-38, but Winston still connected with five different pass catchers with a touchdown to Cameron Brate. Chicago began to play a soft zone to maintain their lead negating the deep shots Tampa Bay had leaned on during the previous weeks. Winston’s 170 air yards in the second half was the greatest half-performance of any quarterback to face Chicago. Winston has now had two weeks to get back in sync with his receivers and face an Atlanta defense with a 22.4 aFPA. While they’re on the road, the Buccaneers have a 26.75 implied team total in one of the highest predicted scoring matchups of Week 6.

Winston is available in 80 percent of Yahoo leagues.

Baker Mayfield vs Chargers

Continue reading Chris's Top Streaming Picks, a Deep League Target, a Quarterback to Bench and one you should be looking at for in Week 6...

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Filed Under:
w6
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2018