DFS Air Yards Buy-Low Model: Week 6

DFS Air Yards Buy-Low Model: Week 6

By Josh Hermsmeyer (Data Analyst), last update Oct 10, 2018

Josh Hermsmeyer's picture

Josh Hermsmeyer is the creator of airyards.com and Air Yards based metrics PACR, RACR and WOPR. His analysis has been published on Rotoworld, Rotoviz, Rotounderworld, and he authored the chapter on Wide Receivers in the Fantasy Football U published by Rotoworld/NBC. Josh created a class on wide receiver Air Yards at Rostercoach and has published research on Quarterback efficiency and NFL player game speed using NextGen Stats data.

Follow Josh Hermsmeyer on Twitter: @friscojosh.

It's Week 6 of the Air Yards Buy-Low model! The Buy-Low model looks at players who received opportunity in the form of targets and air yards and offers an expected fantasy points value based on those inputs. It then highlights which players underperformed relative to that expectation. The key insight behind the model is that opportunity is sticky and production in the form of catches, touchdowns and shot plays are not. You want to buy the signal and fade the noise. The model helps us do just that. This week the model sports an out-of-sample r-squared of 0.617, which is approaching elite for a predictive model.

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In GPPs you need to look beyond the scores and identify value plays that are low-owned that can set your team apart. Here is a list of receivers and running backs who have underperformed their volume for the past three weeks that the model thinks could be in store for a bounce-back week in the near future. Maybe even this week.

 
Name Expected FP Actual FP Diff.
Tyreek Hill 11.8 10.5 -1.3
Michael Crabtree 11.8 11.1 -0.6
Emmanuel Sanders 11.7 11.5 -0.2
Randall Cobb 11.0 6.3 -4.7
Maurice Harris 11.0 7.7 -3.3
Kenny Stills 10.9 8.6 -2.3
Antonio Callaway 10.8 6.5 -4.2
Taywan Taylor 10.1 9.2 -0.9
Pierre Garcon 10.0 7.0 -3.0
Allen Robinson 9.9 9.2 -0.8
Quincy Enunwa 9.5 6.8 -2.7
Nelson Agholor 9.3 7.9 -1.4
Keelan Cole 9.2 7.8 -1.3
Martavis Bryant 8.9 8.7 -0.2
Phillip Dorsett 8.5 7.0 -1.5
Kelvin Benjamin 8.0 4.1 -3.8
Jordan Reed 7.8 6.8 -1.0
Ricky Seals-Jones 7.5 5.9 -1.6
Tyrell Williams 7.3 7.2 -0.1
Zach Pascal 7.3 7.0 -0.3
Ian Thomas 7.3 5.9 -1.4
Zay Jones 7.2 5.2 -2.0
Cole Beasley 7.2 6.2 -0.9
O.J. Howard 7.1 6.6 -0.5
DeVante Parker 7.1 6.0 -1.1

Key Takeaways

  • Tyreek Hill ($7,800 DK/$7,800 FD) makes this list and it has me shook like you would not believe. I want to break chains and have my dragon lay waste to the land. I now have to root for Hill to smash this week. Mahomes will likely bounce back and deep shots are sure to follow. I will bend the knee when Hill scores and indulge in an ample serving of eggs, shame and self-loathing.
  • Kenny Stills ($4,700 DK/$5,800 FD) started hot but has fallen to WR 41 on the season. He leads Miami in Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR) and sports a robust average depth of target (aDOT) of over 18 yards. Over the past three weeks, he's seen 19 percent of the team targets and 50 percent of the air yards. He'll need a higher target total in Week 6 to put up a crooked number, but it is certainly possible. And if a shot play or two hits, look out.
  • Keelan Cole ($4,800 DK/$5,700 FD) has been the odd man out as of late in the Jacksonville passing attack, but he is second on the team in opportunity over the past three weeks. The model picked the correct week from Moncrief two weeks ago, and I'm bullish that it knows who will pop again this week, as Cole is Jacksonville's middle depth reciever and may be in line for some focus by Blake Bortles and OC Nathaniel Hackett.
  • Martavis Bryant ($3,500 DK/$5,600 FD) has the same WOPR as Jordy Nelson over the past three weeks but less than half the fantasy points. Bryant dropped a long pass in Week 5 that might have gone for a touchdown, and Gruden and Carr have shown that they very much want him to not only stretch the field, but are willing to direct a deep target or two to him when he's on the field. His aDOT is 16.7 since Week 3 and he's accounted for 27 percent of Oakland's air yards. He's a cheap and solid tournament play on DK.
  • Finally, Ian Thomas ($2,800 DK/$4,400 FD) may return to the bench if Greg Olsen returns week six. If Olsen sits out another week, however, Thomas saw six targets in Week 5 and could provide some very cheap TE production.
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2018