DraftKings Divisional Round Slate Breakdown
The 2018 fantasy football season has come to a close, but we can still get our fix in with over the next few weeks with these condensed playoff slates. The overarching theme of this article will be GPP focused. On a short slate, one or two players can decide the entire slate. When that's the case, I like to play strictly tournaments with a portfolio of players, rather than one cash game lineup that can get destroyed by one-player variance.
Core Plays - These players will have the highest ownership in my player pool. Usually, they'll be a mix of my favorite high-floor and high-upside players.
Contrarian Plays - These are generally players who may be going overlooked or usually have volatile fantasy production. They will be sprinkled into lineups around the core plays to make them a bit unique.
Update: I always think weather conditions are overblown, but it does seem like is some merit to the concerns of water-logged footballs, slippery conditions and visibility issues. I'm still going to be building lineups centered around this game, but will drop my exposure percentages, as I was going to be massively overweight on both passing attacks.
Patrick Mahomes ($7,000)
You're going to read and hear during the week that the Colts' defense has been stingy over the last month. You're also going to read/hear that they play a zone defense, which is disadvantageous for mobile quarterbacks because the defenders rarely turn their backs on the quarterback. You're also going to read/hear that they play a bend-don't-break style that limits deep shots and makes offenses nickel and dime them down the field. All of that is true, but it's not necessarily an indictment of Mahomes' outlook this week. The Colts rank 19th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. Over their last four games, they shut down Dak Prescott and Blaine Gabbert, but gave up a 300-yard passing game to Eli Manning and a 75-yard rush game to Deshaun Watson. They're beatable, especially on the road at Arrowhead. The Chiefs' have the weapons to exploit what the Colts' defense is going to give them. Even if they don't let Tyreek Hill blow the top off their defense, Mahomes will work the underneath routes to Hill, Travis Kelce, Damien Williams and the other ancillary receivers. Sammy Watkins could be back, which would be a boost for his bottom line as well. The aspect of this 57-point total game is that the Colts will most likely be able to score quickly on the Chiefs, forcing them to return fire. I'm not worried about Mahomes against the Colts' defense—neither is Vegas with a 31-point implied team total. He checks in as our top quarterback play with a median projection of 25.0 fantasy points.