Streaming Quarterbacks: Week 14 Targets

Streaming Quarterbacks: Week 14 Targets

By Chris Allen (4for4 Contributor), last update Dec 4, 2018

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Chris Allen comes from an analytical background, leveraging his data skills with his multiple years of experience across different formats (e.g. seasonal redraft, DFS, MFL10). He has tested weather effects and its impact on games, player output variance, and the validity of the associated narratives. Chris can be heard as co-host on the Dynasty Manual podcast.

Follow Chris Allen on Twitter: @ChrisAllenFFWX.

It’s time. The playoffs are here. Every draft pick, every waiver wire pick up and every win you notched doesn’t matter now. You made it. All 13 weeks of fantasy become three weeks of anxiety. Matchups, injuries and practice reports become a part of your daily information consumption. Decision-making becomes more intense. Afterward, all you can do is wait for the games. If you’ve been streaming the ‘onesie’ positions throughout the season, it’s likely that the core of your squad is strong. Rostering top-producing receivers and running backs allows for some flexibility at the quarterback position. You can play the optimal matchups as offenses ebb and flow due to injuries and varying game scripts. So let’s get into the first week of the playoffs and see what quarterbacks might be out on the wire.

Week 13 featured some bizarre results for quarterbacks. Cam Newton threw four interceptions. Josh Allen and Derek Carr finished in the top five. But the streamers performed well, too. Jameis Winston, our top streaming recommendation, finished Week 13 with 22.8 points (QB6). Lamar Jackson and Dak Prescott also fared well with 16.5 and 14.1 points, respectively. With their offenses producing and their ownership steadily rising, it’s likely we’ll be talking about them again soon. Now, let’s look at the updates to our tools.

4for4's Schedule-Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed becomes an essential tool for evaluating your matchups as they're updated each week. Noticeable changes from Week 13 to Week 14 include:

  • SEA down 12 spots with a 17.2 aFPA
  • MIA down 8 spots with a 20.2 aFPA
  • NO up 7 spots with a 17.1 aFPA
  • NE up 7 spots with a 17.6 aFPA

Injuries and personnel changes have altered our views on many of the defenses originally viewed as positive matchups to target. Defenses are discussed above, and injuries are discussed in the section below. As always, the other guidelines include:

  • Only quarterbacks with no more than a 40 percent ownership in Yahoo leagues are considered.
  • Ancillary metrics and game conditions (e.g. defensive ranking, weather) will be factored into the analysis.
  • Positive matchups for all pass catchers to be considered.
  • 4for4 rankings should always be consulted for league-specific decisions.

Finally, we’re adding in something new with the playoffs around the corner. Our Playoff Matchup Planner has looked ahead at each matchup during the playoffs and averaged the fantasy points allowed for all positions. It should be your go-to site for all planning for those locked into a championship run. To consolidate the findings, some recommendations are provided below which will be adjusted each week as new information becomes available.

Key Defensive Injuries:

Chris Harris Jr., Broncos (Leg) – It was readily apparent after a tackle in the first quarter that the corner was in pain. The cart to the locker room with the quick ‘Out’ designation made things worse and the MRI determination was the closer. The Broncos (14.5 aFPA) have had some misfires on defense but have been the beneficiaries of last-minute offensive errors resulting in defensive stops (Week 11 @ LAC and Week 12 vs PIT). Or, they’ve just played poor offenses (Week 13 @ CIN). Denver’s secondary will be put to the test with the 49ers’ passing game finding some life in Week 13, but the overall matchup is optimal for the mile-high team. Harris hopes to be back for the playoffs.

Johnathan Joseph, Texans (Neck) – The veteran cornerback was laid out on the field after making a tackle on Browns’ running back Nick Chubb. Originally thought to be a shoulder injury, Houston has classified it was a neck injury and his Week 14 status is unknown. The Texans’ defense (17.3 aFPA) has been plagued with injuries and has relied heavily on Joseph (2 INTs, 37 solo tackles). They face the recently-shutout Colts at home in Week 14.

Trae Waynes, Vikings (Concussion) – Star cornerback Xavier Rhodes was already dealing with a sore hamstring and the Vikings just placed Andrew Sendejo on injured reserve making Waynes one of the few healthy defensive players. Waynes was following Josh Gordon for most of the snaps and, once declared out, the Patriots exploited the Vikings’ loss. With no word on his status, Minnesota (14.8 aFPA) may be forced to face the surging Seahawks in Seattle with another man down.

Top Streaming Picks

Case Keenum at 49ers

We’re looking for matchups to exploit in the fantasy playoffs and there are few with this much potential for quarterback production. The 49ers (19.8 aFPA) have given up over 200 yards and nearly two passing touchdowns per game. Oh, and Russell Wilson just threw for four TDs against them on 17 attempts. 17. Keenum hasn’t been that efficient of a passer, but the game environment sets up well for the Broncos. They’re in the bottom third with respect to sack rate and have only two interceptions in the past three games. Starting safety Jaquiski Tartt has already been ruled out for Week 14 and nearly every Seahawks’ receiver got a chance to shine in Week 13. While the Broncos have been apt to let their rushing game handle the load, San Francisco is in the top 10 for rush defense. This should boost Keenum’s touchdown equity in the upcoming matchup while they’re on the road with a 23.5-point implied total.

Keenum is available in 80 percent of Yahoo leagues.

Lamar Jackson at Chiefs

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2018