DFS Projected Ownership Analysis: Week 14

Dec 06, 2018

The Week 14 NFL DFS Projected Ownership Analysis article highlights discrepancies between 4for4 player projections and projected ownership.

Leveraging ownership percentages is a crucial aspect of creating tournament lineups. In this article, I will be using the 4for4 metric GPP Leverage Scores to highlight players whose projected ownership is either too high or too low. You can get a complete explanation on how the metric works here, but in short, the leverage score takes projected ownership and compares it to an implied ownership. The projected ownership is the prediction of what percentage of lineups a particular player will be owned in. A player’s implied ownership is 4for4’s recommended ownership based on salary, point projection, positional scarcity, among other factors. Comparing the two ownership percentages can highlight players who 4for4 projections are higher or lower on relative to the field.

Players to Be Overweight On

QB Josh Allen ($7,400 FD/$5,500 DK)

Josh Allen has run for an eye-popping 234 yards and one touchdown in the last two games. Those totals would beat most quarterback's season totals. Allen is averaging 15 fantasy points a week in just rushing production. The Jets rank third to last in fantasy points allowed to offenses and specifically 26th in aFPA to quarterbacks. Allen shouldn't have much push back this week on his way to another big fantasy day. The Bills cut some dead weight this week by releasing Kelvin Benjamin. This is going to get Zay Jones and Robert Foster on the field for a greater percentage of the snaps. Those two receivers have been the most effective in recent weeks and should provide more efficiency than having the feet-in-concrete Benjamin manning the outside.