DFS Projected Ownership Analysis: Week 11

Nov 14, 2018

Pat James

The Week 11 NFL DFS Projected Ownership Analysis article highlights discrepancies between 4for4 player projections and projected ownership.

Leveraging ownership percentages is a crucial aspect of creating tournament lineups. In this article, I will be using the 4for4 metric GPP Leverage Scores to highlight players whose projected ownership is either too high or too low. You can get a complete explanation on how the metric works here, but in short, the leverage score takes projected ownership and compares it to an implied ownership. The projected ownership is the prediction of what percentage of lineups a particular player will be owned in. A player’s implied ownership is 4for4’s recommended ownership based on salary, point projection, positional scarcity, among other factors. Comparing the two ownership percentages can highlight players who 4for4 projections are higher or lower on relative to the field.

Players to Be Overweight On

QB Deshaun Watson ($7,800 FD/$5,700 DK)

Watson has one of the highest projected ceilings on the week against a Redskins defense that has allowed 300-yard passing games in the last three weeks, including a 400-yard game to Ryan Fitzpatrick. With a week to heal up from his chest injury, in which he couldn't even get on an airplane, hopefully, Watson isn't hesitant to pull the ball down and tack on some fantasy points with his legs. Additionally, the Texans should have Keke Coutee back as well as a more broken in Demaryius Thomas. Add in the dominance of DeAndre Hopkins and Watson can push for the top quarterback score on the site at three percent ownership