15 NFL.com Fantasy Football Sleepers
For the past few seasons, I have looked at John Paulsen’s rankings here on 4for4 and put them side-by-side with average draft position (ADP) data from each of the major sites that host our beloved fantasy football leagues.
That would take many hours to come up with who are the best values and sleepers on the actual sites we play on, instead of just using the overall ADP of a player across all sites.
But this season, there is a fantastic new tool we have unveiled for 4for4 subscribers—the ADP Bargains (Sleepers) tool. It can be found under the Tools heading in the menu above, then under Draft tools.
It essentially takes what I used to do manually and organizes it into a nice table that gets updated throughout the draft season with the latest ADP data from the site you use for your leagues.
Just change the settings to how many QBs, RBs, WRs, and TEs you draft, mark whether you play in standard or PPR, and choose where your league is hosted.
Today, we’re going to study who the best standard and PPR league values are for those who play in NFL.com leagues, with the default lineup settings of 2RB, 2WR, 1TE, and a FLEX (RB/WR). That means we’ll adjust the ADP Bargains tool to 2.5, 2.5, and 1.0 for each of those positions, respectively. Let’s begin with standard league bargains, as that is the default setting for leagues hosted on NFL.com.
Standard League Values on NFL.com
QB Blake Bortles, Jacksonville Jaguars
People love to hate the Jaguars signal-caller. However, Bortles is being drafted more than five rounds later than he should be in the 18th round. That also means he’s likely going undrafted more than he’s being drafted. He’s the best value among QBs on NFL.com, and actually studying our projections is key here. He’s only projected to score 12 points fewer than our QB10. That’s less than one point per week. Therefore, if you find yourself not liking the value of when you have to draft the higher priced quarterbacks, wait, wait, and wait some more. Because the difference between our QB10 and Bortles, our QB20, is negligible. At that point, play the matchups each week and don’t waste an earlier pick on a quarterback. And for the “Bortles sucks” crowd, he’s finished as the fantasy QB13 and QB11 the past two seasons.
QB Mitch Trubisky, Chicago Bears
Trubisky is being selected in NFL.com leagues after the 15th round, which also means he’s often going undrafted. Only Bortles has a larger Bargain Score among QBs in our ADP Bargains tool for standard NFL.com leagues. By our top-200 projections, he should be going five rounds earlier than that. He may only be QB19 in our rankings, but it’s important to again note just how deep the QB position is this season. There is less than a point per week projected difference between Trubisky and our QB10. There’s a lot to like about Trubisky’s improved coaching staff, similar to what Sean McVay did for Jared Goff a year ago, with former Chiefs offensive coordinator Matt Nagy now calling the shots in Chicago.
RB Chris Ivory, Buffalo Bills
This is a deep sleeper/dart throw type of pick at the end of your draft, given LeSean McCoy’s present legal uncertainty. Ivory is going undrafted, evidenced by an average draft position (ADP) of almost 300. Our top-200 ranking has him inside the top 125. He could be an early-down workhorse for the Bills, with no other early-down competition on the roster if McCoy is put on the Commissioner’s Exempt list. If it doesn’t work out, it cost you nothing, and you pick up another player off waivers. Ivory is easily the top bargain in the ADP Bargains tool right now among RBs.
RB Rex Burkhead, New England Patriots
Among top-24 RB options, Rex Burkhead provides the most value in NFL leagues. His ADP in the ninth round is more than five rounds of value, considering we have him ranked in the top 40 overall as a solid RB2 in a potent offense. Cash in on the discount for Burkhead and build a strong corp of RBs. He has a great chance to be the Patriots' goal-line back this season, despite Bill Belichick drafting Sony Michel in the first round.
RB Tevin Coleman, Atlanta Falcons
Coleman is one of our top-24 RBs and is the next best value among RB1s and RB2s in our rankings; however, he’s being drafted after the seventh round. We think he should go no later than the fifth round. You won’t find many potential RB2s that late this season. If you wait to build your RB depth on your fantasy roster this season, Coleman is one to target in standard leagues to help build an arsenal of RB2 options. He was the RB22 and RB17 in standard leagues the past two seasons.
WR Cameron Meredith, New Orleans Saints
Continue reading to see why Cameron Meredith is a bargain at his price in NFL.com leagues, and the rest of Steve's sleeper picks for the 2018 fantasy season on NFL.com...