DFS Wide Receiver Analysis: Week 8

DFS Wide Receiver Analysis: Week 8

By TJ Hernandez (Associate Editor), last update Oct 26, 2017

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TJ is a former full-time poker player who has been playing fantasy football for more than a decade. After online poker was outlawed, TJ ended his poker career and dedicated himself to fantasy football. His background in poker statistics and analytics translates to success in both daily and season-long fantasy football.

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Each week I break down the wide receiver position and explain how you should think about players in terms of tiers, their overall impact on lineup construction, and potential range of outcomes.

Below is an analysis of this week’s wide receivers on the main slate, including the upside and downside of each relevant player, and how you might adjust your approach to the position depending on the game type. The chalk and any referenced ownership percentages are derived from the 4for4 DFS Ownership Projections.

Chalk

The receivers with the highest projected ownership this week happen to be the three most expensive plays on the board. Two are in a phenomenal matchup while the third already has two games of at least 25 PPR points against top-five opponents. With ownership concentrated at the top, the few high-priced receivers remaining will be low-owned pivot plays in GPPs, while going to other pricing tiers will lead to a unique roster composition. There are six teams on a bye, which means there figures to be more overlap among lineups than usual, leading to increased variance, so owners should be even more inclined to take shots at unpopular plays.

  • A.J. Green ($8,500 FD/$8,600 DK) is the top-projected wide receiver value on both sites against a Colts defense ranked 29th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to wide receivers and no better than 25th against any other position. Colts games have hit the over five times this year and Indianapolis is the only team that has allowed their opponents to go over their implied point total six times this season. As 10.5-point favorites, A.J. Green’s downside lies in a game where Cincinnati gets up big before Green finds paydirt, and the Bengals are content to run the ball the rest of the way.
  • The only team besides the Colts to rank 25th or worse in aFPA to every skill position is the Jets and this week the Falcons and Julio Jones ($8,700/$8,400) travel to New York. Julio finished with an impressive stat line last week in a similarly favorable matchup but 6 of his catches came when the Falcons were already trailing by 20 points. No team has averaged more points below their implied total this year than the Falcons.
  • The Steelers are only on the FanDuel main slate, but Antonio Brown ($9,200/$8,800) is expected to be one of the highest-owned receivers of the week and he’s the top-projected WR on DraftKings' full slate. Brown has already proven himself to be somewhat matchup proof this season, but he is expected to be shadowed by Darius Slay and Detroit is a running back funnel defense, ranked 13th in wide receiver aFPA, but 23rd against running backs. 

Studs

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