DFS Wide Receiver Analysis: Week 6

DFS Wide Receiver Analysis: Week 6

By TJ Hernandez (Associate Editor), last update Oct 14, 2017

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TJ is a former full-time poker player who has been playing fantasy football for more than a decade. After online poker was outlawed, TJ ended his poker career and dedicated himself to fantasy football. His background in poker statistics and analytics translates to success in both daily and season-long fantasy football.

Follow TJ Hernandez on Twitter: @TJHernandez.

Each week I break down the wide receiver position and explain how you should think about players in terms of tiers, their overall impact on lineup construction, and potential range of outcomes.

Below is an analysis of this week’s wide receivers on the main slate, including the upside and downside of each relevant player, and how you might adjust your approach to the position depending on the game type. The chalk and any referenced ownership percentages are derived from the 4for4 DFS Ownership Projections.

Chalk

As is often the case, ownership is in lockstep with the Vegas lines, but it seems especially exaggerated this week, at least at wide receiver. Atlanta, Houston, and New Orleans account for three of the five highest implied point totals this week and we see the most popular receivers coming from those rosters. All five teams projected to score 27 or more points are favored by at least six, so an argument can be made for foregoing some of the more trendy pass-catchers in favor of the running games with an eye on game script. 

  • The Falcons have the highest implied point total of the week, projected by Vegas for 29 points. With Mohamed Sanu likely out this week, Julio Jones should see the 30%+ target share he saw in the two weeks prior to injuring his hip in Week 4. Even after the Week 5 bye, Jones has been limited in practice because of that hip and he’s still only seen a single red zone target on the season.
  • Deshaun Watson figures to be the highest owned quarterback of the week, so it’s no surprise his two primary pass-catchers, DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller, top 4for4’s ownership projections. Hopkins leads the league in targets and target share, while ranking fifth among all pass-catchers in red zone targets, making him the top value on both sites. Fuller has scored a pair of touchdowns in each of his first two games this season. Although Cleveland’s defense ranks last in quarterback aFPA, they rank in the top half of the league against wide receivers. Hopkins will spend much of his time lined up across from Jason McCourty, who ranks in the top 10 among all cornerbacks in fantasy points per target allowed, according to PlayerProfiler.com. Fuller has been productive but it may be unsustainable, as he has just 9 targets through two games.
  • New Orleans is at home in the game with the highest over/under of the week. Michael Thomas is averaging over 9 targets per game and has amassed at least 80 yards in three straight games, including back-to-back scoring weeks, but he's facing a Lions defense ranked ninth in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to wide receivers. Willie Snead is on track to make his season debut, which could hurt Thomas’ target share.

Studs

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