DFS Tight End Analysis: Conference Championship Edition

DFS Tight End Analysis: Conference Championship Edition

By TJ Hernandez (Director of DFS), on Jan 18, 2018

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TJ is a former full-time poker player who has been playing fantasy football for more than a decade. After online poker was outlawed, TJ ended his poker career and dedicated himself to fantasy football. His background in poker statistics and analytics translates to success in both daily and season-long fantasy football.

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DFS is a game of exploiting a lot of small edges, therefore all options at each position should be explored every week. Below is an analysis of this week’s tight ends, including the upside and downside of the most viable players on the slate with explanations for how you might adjust your approach to the position depending on the game type.

With just four teams in action this week, three tight ends are priced as studs with Rob Gronkowski expected to command ownership levels around 50%. Rather than breaking up the position by pricing tiers or ownership, the following will give an overview of each viable option at the position.

Tight Ends

  • The Patriots are the only team projected to score more than 21 points this week so it’s no surprise Rob Gronkowski ($8,400 FD/$7,900 DK) is lapping the field in projected ownership. On the surface, it would appear fading Gronk against a Jacksonville defense ranked first in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed (aFPA) to tight ends is a viable strategy in some spots but no defense remaining ranks lower than seventh against the position. While Gronk is $1,400 more expensive than the TE2 on FanDuel, he still registers as the top value at his position there and finds his way into the optimal lineup on DraftKings. Jacksonville allowed the second-lowest passing touchdown rate in the red zone this year but they ranked in the middle of the pack in touchdowns allowed to the position. Pittsburgh did exploit a weakness in the Jaguars pass defense last week, targeting tight end Vance McDonald 16 times, resulting in 10 catches for 112 yards.

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