DFS Wide Receiver Analysis: Divisional Round

DFS Wide Receiver Analysis: Divisional Round

By TJ Hernandez (Director of DFS), last update Jan 11, 2018

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TJ is a former full-time poker player who has been playing fantasy football for more than a decade. After online poker was outlawed, TJ ended his poker career and dedicated himself to fantasy football. His background in poker statistics and analytics translates to success in both daily and season-long fantasy football.

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Each week I break down the wide receiver position and explain how you should think about players in terms of tiers, their overall impact on lineup construction, and potential range of outcomes.

Below is an analysis of this week’s wide receivers, including the upside and downside of each relevant player, and how you might adjust your approach to the position depending on the game type.

*This week, FanDuel is running two main slates, one on Saturday and one on Sunday. The following will reflect pricing for the Saturday-Sunday slate which is currently reflected in our Lineup Generator. For a more in-depth analysis of pricing across slates, look for this week’s FanDuel Slate breakdown.

Chalk

With so few options available on a four-game slate, there are multiple wide receivers who could push 20% ownership, but Julio Jones and Eric Decker are the only players projected as the highest-owned receivers on both sites. The huge price discrepancy between these two allows room for owners to build a relatively unique lineup even if with either of these players on the roster.

  • Julio Jones ($8,800 FD/ $7,900 DK) is the only high-priced receiver without a glaring concern, be it matchup or injury. Jones continued to be a target monster in the first round of the playoffs, accounting for over a third of the Falcons targets against the Rams and he converted one of his three red zone targets into a score. Philadelphia finished the season ranked 21st in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed (aFPA) to wide receivers and faced the second-highest passing rate in the red zone this year. Only three teams allowed more receivers to score at least 20 PPR points in a game than the Eagles but four of those instances came in just two games. 
  • Eric Decker ($4,800/$3,800) salvaged his week with a game-winning touchdown catch last week but his 5 targets accounted for just 16% of Marcus Mariota’s passes in the Wild Card round. As 13.5-point underdogs, Tennessee is expected to be in a pass-heavy game script but targets have fluctuated wildly in the Titans’ offense, outside of Delanie Walker. Decker is the only Titans pass-catcher besides Walker with double-digit red zone targets this season and no defense faced a higher passing rate inside the 20 than the Patriots.

Studs

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2017