FanDuel Week 14 Slate Breakdown with Cash and GPP Picks

FanDuel Week 14 Slate Breakdown with Cash and GPP Picks

By TJ Hernandez (Director of DFS), last update Dec 11, 2017

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TJ is a former full-time poker player who has been playing fantasy football for more than a decade. After online poker was outlawed, TJ ended his poker career and dedicated himself to fantasy football. His background in poker statistics and analytics translates to success in both daily and season-long fantasy football.

Follow TJ Hernandez on Twitter: @TJHernandez.

Below I give my overall FanDuel cash game and tournament strategy thoughts and discuss how players fit into these strategies. By offering a general approach to the week, along with a player pool to consider, you should walk away feeling well-equipped no matter your bankroll strategy or game selection process.


Main Slate Cash Game Strategy

For the second straight week, some of the most expensive players aren’t on the main slate and many of the remaining studs are in marginal matchups. Combine that with the fact that there are quite a few affordable options at each position and Week 14 allows for a lot of flexibility in roster construction built around one or two “free squares”.

Quarterback

With viable cash plays near minimum salary at every position, this is a good week to roster one of the pricier quarterbacks in cash games, even though cheap options dominate the top of the value reports. Alex Smith ($8,200) has the best odds of any player at his position to hit cash game value this week. The Chiefs are favored at home over the Raiders with the highest implied point total on the main slate (26). Oakland ranks 25th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks, allowing the eighth-highest touchdown rate to opposing passers over the last six weeks. The Chargers share the highest implied point total of the week with the Chiefs and face a Washington defense that has allowed 10 passing touchdowns and two 300-yard passers (with another that missed by three yards) over the last five weeks. Philip Rivers ($8,100) is coming off of consecutive 300-yard games and has thrown multiple touchdowns in 3-of-4 games since the Chargers' bye. 

In the $7,000 range are two quarterbacks that are given top-four odds to hit cash game value this week. Jared Goff ($7,700) has a tough on-paper matchup against a Philadelphia defense ranked seventh in quarterback aFPA, but the Rams are favored at home and are projected for 25.25 points, the third-highest on the slate. No quarterback is averaging more fantasy points per pass attempt over the last six weeks than Goff. Jameis Winston ($7,200) is at home against a Detroit defense ranked 28th in quarterback aFPA. Red zone trends suggest that when Tampa Bay has scoring opportunities, it will be Winston accruing fantasy points—the Buccaneers rank in the top 10 in passing rate inside the red zone while the Lions rank in the bottom 10 in passing touchdown rate allowed inside the 20. 

There are quite a few affordable quarterback options at the top of this week’s value report, but my preferred play if I am going cheap at quarterback is Tom Savage ($6,000). Over the last six weeks, only seven teams have thrown at a higher rate in neutral game script than the Texans and they face a 49ers defense ranked 27th in aFPA to quarterbacks. Per FootballOutsiders.com, this is the only game on the main slate with two teams ranked in the top 10 in neutral pace and the game total has increased by 1.5 points since the line opened, the biggest jump of any game so far.

Running Back

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2017