DFS Wide Receiver Analysis: Week 11

DFS Wide Receiver Analysis: Week 11

By TJ Hernandez (Director of DFS), last update Nov 19, 2017

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TJ is a former full-time poker player who has been playing fantasy football for more than a decade. After online poker was outlawed, TJ ended his poker career and dedicated himself to fantasy football. His background in poker statistics and analytics translates to success in both daily and season-long fantasy football.

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Each week I break down the wide receiver position and explain how you should think about players in terms of tiers, their overall impact on lineup construction, and potential range of outcomes.

Below is an analysis of this week’s wide receivers on the main slate, including the upside and downside of each relevant player, and how you might adjust your approach to the position depending on the game type. The chalk and any referenced ownership percentages are derived from the 4for4 DFS Ownership Projections.

The following games currently have winds of 15 mph or higher in their gameday forecast: JAX @ CLE, BAL @ GB, DET @ CHI, KC @ NYG. Weather should be taken into account when considering wide receivers in any of these games.

Chalk

Most of the elite receivers this week either aren’t on the main slate or find themselves in tough matchups, so ownership is slanted towards a couple of popular games and the only receiver on the main slate priced as a stud on both sites. With no high-volume, reliable receiver in a dream spot, this is a week where ownership at the position could end up being surprising come lineup lock.

  • Mike Evans ($7,800 FD/ $7,900 DK) is the only receiver priced as a stud on both sites and he’s one of the few high-volume receivers on the main slate in a non-prohibitive matchup. Tampa Bay faces a Miami defense ranked in the bottom half of the league in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed (aFPA) to wide receivers and has allowed the second-highest passing touchdown rate in the red zone. With Ryan Fitzpatrick under center for the majority of the last two weeks, the Buccaneers have less than 300 total passing yards and have generated only 25 points.
  • The Patriots have the highest implied point total of the week (30) in the game with the highest over/under (53.5). Brandin Cooks ($7,700/$6,600) has seen at least 8 targets in four of the Patriots' last five games and Chris Hogan is expected to sit out again in Week 11. Cooks will face a Raiders secondary ranked 24th in wide receiver aFPA but 10th in pass plays of 15+ yards allowed, which is how Cooks does most of his damage.
  • On the Raiders side of the ball, Amari Cooper ($7,300/$7,300) is expected to be chalky on DraftKings, where he is priced as the WR14, despite averaging 12.7 targets per game over Oakland’s last three games. New England has allowed the second-most catches and yards to opposing receivers and only one team has given up more passing plays of 15+ yards, which benefits Cooper more than any other Raider. Despite Cooper’s recent uptick in volume, he’s exceeded 10 PPR points just once since Week 1, even with a stretch of four straight plus matchups leading up to the bye.
  • Larry Fitzgerald ($6,900/$6,900) has been mostly undeterred by the loss of Carson Palmer, with at least 9 targets and 70 yards in each of the Cardinals' two games since their bye. This week, Fitzgerald will face a Texans defense ranked 30th in wide receiver aFPA, allowing the most fantasy points per pass attempt in the league. Blaine Gabbert is expected to start at quarterback for Arizona in Week 11, so Fitzgerald will have to fight through another quarterback change with a player who couldn’t even beat out Drew Stanton on the depth chart.

Studs 

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2017