The Top DFS Stacks on FanDuel and DraftKings in Week 10

Nov 09, 2017

Here I’ll be diving into stacks that mainly involve the week’s highest over/unders. For starters, I’ll lead with my favorite game stack from the highest implied over/under game, followed by analyzing the next three games with the highest totals on the slate, and then a low-owned stack.

Top Stacks From Games With High Vegas Totals

UPDATE: Zeke has been suspended and will not play in Week 10. If Dez Bryant (knee, ankle) is active, consider stacking him as a high-risk, low-owned tournament option. Dez will be running most of his routes against Robert Alford, who has struggled in coverage, but he will also see some Desmond Trufant. The absence of Zeke could increase his touchdown probability from within the red zone and he already sees 47.1 percent of their red zone targets from within 10 yards.

Falcons (26.75) vs. Cowboys (23.75) — Over/Under 50.5

Dak Prescott ($8,880/$7,300) + Ezekiel Elliott ($8,900/$8,800) + Mohamed Sanu ($5,900/$5,100)

It’s an odd week of DFS when there is only one game projected for over 47 points. Lots of focus may be put on the Cowboys and Falcons game, and rightfully so. I am writing this piece with the assumption that Elliott will suit up (he has a court hearing on Thursday).

Dak heads into this game as the league’s second-most efficient quarterback, averaging 0.62 fantasy points per dropback. His matchup doesn’t jump off the page—the Falcons rank 17th in quarterback aFPA—but he has been a top-10 quarterback in every game this season, with the exception of one game. Dak boasts a high floor and ceiling with his 6.2 percent touchdown rate, and he’s tied with Cam Newton for a position-high 4 rushing touchdowns.

Rolling it back with Elliott makes the most sense, as the Falcons rank 27th in running back aFPA, and Terrance Williams and Dez Bryant are currently battling injuries. Stacking Prescott with Elliott allows the potential to rack up 100 percent of the Cowboys' offensive touchdowns (also, recall that rostering a quarterback with his running back does have a positive correlation). You’re golden if Dak throws a touchdown to Zeke, which is ~~very possible~~ ~~since the Falcons are allowing the most receptions in the league to opposing running backs.~~

Mohamed Sanu has been steady this season, garnering 19 percent of Atlanta's target share, or 6.3 targets per game. He also leads the team with 8 red zone targets (one more than Julio Jones) and 3 receiving touchdowns—all three from inside the 10-yard line. It’s a good spot to save salary while gaining exposure to a high team total and exploit a good matchup, as the Cowboys rank 23rd in wide receiver aFPA.