DraftKings Week 10 Slate Breakdown with Cash and GPP Picks
With DraftKings tightening pricing this season, tournament winners—in the Millionaire Maker, at least—haven't been able to find as much value, and have needed to go more contrarian to find out. This has resulted in balanced roster construction becoming even more optimal. I elaborate and provide more analysis in this week's Raybon's Review, so you may want to read that first; it will serve as a good backdrop for many of the plays and much of the strategy discussed in this article.
Note: Week 10 funnel ratings appear at the end of the article.
In a week where there’s enough value in the middle salary tiers at other positions to warrant paying up at QB, the top cash play for me is Matthew Stafford ($6,800) against a Browns defense ranked dead last in QB aFPA. Detroit's implied total—which correlates with QB fantasy production—of 28 points is the second-highest on the slate, and Stafford paces all QBs in cash odds. I give Stafford, a home favorite, the edge over Dak Prescott, a road underdog who is dealing with a banged up top wideout (Dez Bryant, knee) and left tackle (Tyron Smith, groin). (I wouldn't necessarily recommend him as a standalone overweight exposure play, but if you're using Stafford in tournaments, don't overlook the Eric Ebron stack—Cleveland is also 32nd in aFPA to TEs.)
The highest-upside tournament option at QB may be the one that ended up as the best last week: Jared Goff ($6,700). While it may feel like point chasing to target Goff coming off a $900 increase to a QB4 price tag, others will be thinking that, too. Goff is quarterbacking the league’s highest-scoring offense (32.4 points per game) against a defense ranked 26th in QB aFPA. Further blunting the effect of Goff’s salary increase as far as tournaments go is the fact that none of his pass-catchers cost more than $5,000 (Robert Woods). Offenses have found success targeting Houston deep downfield; their 14.75 yards per target allowed on passes that travel 16+ yards in the air is the second-highest mark in the league, as is their 10.0-yard average target depth allowed, per airyards.com. I'm betting offensively-minded prodigy Sean McVay will take notice.
While Goff could be the highest-upside play, my favorite play when taking into account ownership (and salary) is Eli Manning ($5,100). The 49ers are ranked 23rd in QB aFPA and 31st in third-down conversion rate allowed (46.6%)—including a league-worst 55.8% mark at home that's worse than any other team on the road. Especially with tight end eraser Jacquiski Tartt on injured reserve, Eli and company should be able to move the ball, dominate time of possession, and rack up numbers against a subpar defense.
Another contrarian play I like is Marcus Mariota ($5,800). He's a home favorite, but a modest 22.5-point implied total and a matchup against what's perceived to be a stout Bengals defense will cause him to go overlooked. In actuality, the Bengals rank a middling 14th in QB aFPA and have struggled to get off the field of late—their 48.9% third-down conversion rate allowed over their last three games ranks fourth-worst in the league. And remember, there's always going to be a bit of extra value in targeting a mobile QB.
An over/under of 42 doesn't look that enticing, but Jets-Buccaneers could be a fruitful fantasy game for Josh McCown ($6,100) and Ryan Fitzpatrick ($4,900), especially if opposing passing game correlations come into play. The Bucs are ranked 31st in QB aFPA while the Jets are ranked 28th.