4for4 Mailbag Week 6
Welcome to the weekly 4for4 Mailbag, where I answer your questions about all aspects of fantasy football including redraft leagues, DFS strategy, advice on handling angry football widows, and even some pop culture. Since it will be published on Thursdays throughout the season, I won’t be tackling waiver wire advice, so be sure to check out 4for4’s valuable articles on streaming and the like, to aid with your weekly roster decisions.
To submit a question for consideration, tweet me @themondaymommy or simply use the hashtag #4for4mailbag.
@BPazoles: .5 PPR, can’t drop Min D. Need to drop Eddie Royal or Tyrell Williams. Close in targets, receiving TDs and red zone. Keep TY? Thoughts?
JE: Without any research at all, my gut says to drop Royal, because what has transpired with him this season so far, is his typical MO. He starts out making plays, only to fade away and frustrate his fantasy owners for the remainder of the season. We have a much smaller gut sample size from Williams, as it’s only his second year in the league.
However, we all know that I will do research because having tangible data to base our roster decisions on is what we are all about here at 4for4. You didn’t specify if your league gives points for kick and punt returns, because with Royal big returns are always a possibility, so he would win out there for me.
As far as their receiving games go, like you mentioned, they are similar in targets, snap percentage and fantasy points. If we consider each guy’s QB, with 65 points based on your league’s scoring, Brian Hoyer is actually shaping up to be quite the fantasy quarterback through his three starts, and appears to have won the starting job, for now. Although the Chargers are struggling, Rivers is averaging 19.0 points per game and can always be counted on for solid garbage time points (with a pick or two thrown in there, of course).
I could honestly write an entire column comparing these two, going into depth charts, rest of season schedule, and a myriad of other statistical categories, however I must move on to other questions. The reality is, these guys are very similar and will most likely put up comparable fantasy numbers moving forward. So, if you get points for returns, keep Royal, if not I think that Williams has the higher upside.
@grizzlyadams12: Is OBJ still a buy with Manning’s struggles & is Lamar Miller still a hold with Osweiler’s struggles?
JE: Odell Beckham Jr. would have to be laid out in a hospital bed with casts on all appendages in order for me to say get rid of him, or not start him. Sure, Eli has struggled a bit so far this season averaging only 12.6 PPR fantasy points a game, but with the exception of two matchups with the Eagles, the remainder of his schedule is soft versus the QB position.
OBJ threw a mild tantrum after Week 4, and bounced back with a decent performance, grabbing five receptions for 56 yards and a touchdown, amassing 16.6 PPR fantasy points last week against the Packers. Moving forward, his opponents for the rest of the season are averaging 36.3 schedule adjusted fantasy points allowed (aFPA), to the WR position, so look for him to rebound nicely. OBJ will be just fine, so if someone in your league is panicking and selling, I wouldn’t hesitate to scoop him up.
Lamar Miller is a different story. After the first five weeks of the season, he is sitting as RB22, averaging 11.9 PPR points a game. The Texans offense is terrible, starting with their $37 million dollar quarterback, on down to his brutal offensive line. They are fortunate to play in the worst division in the NFL and will most likely mediocre their way in to a playoff berth.
Due to their crap division, Miller should have a few decent games down the road, but if you can upgrade another position by trading with someone desperate at RB, it’s not such a bad idea.
@FFBallAppraiser: Is zero RB dying a bloody death now that it is mainstream, and who is the RB2 if Gordon gets sat down?
JE: Zero RB has been around for a while, but for some reason this summer it spread like wildfire across the fantasy community. I have no real psychic powers, nor can I predict the future, however, based on how the 2016 season is shaping up, I have a feeling some people regret totally committing to the draft strategy, and may abandon ship for next season.
Adrian Peterson is really the only top tier guy who is out for the season, joined by Danny Woodhead and Ameer Abdullah, who both had later ADPs and were considered targets for RB1 in a zero draft strategy. Personally, I went slightly zero RB in one redraft and it bit me in the ass. I lost Doug Martin, Danny Woodhead and Arian Foster in the same week, and am still scrambling four weeks later. Luckily, I will have Martin back and he is why I said “slightly” when it came to zero RB strategy, as he was my third-round pick.
Studs like LeVeon Bell, Ezekiel Elliott and David Johnson are out there putting up huge numbers, and were taken by players in the first or early second-rounds. I have a feeling that their owners are pretty happy they shut out the zero RB noise and took the best guy available.
As far as Melvin Gordon’s RB2, I believe it will be Dexter McCluster, although he is currently dealing with a hamstring injury. Meanwhile, those of us in the fantasy football realm keep waiting for the other shoe to drop when it comes to Gordon, but for now the backfield is all his. Through the first five weeks, he is sitting at RB6 with 94.1 PPR fantasy points averaging 18.8 per game. And most of all, he is actually healthy.
@MooseOnaHill: Does Tyler Lockett have any value going forward in a PPR league?
JE: So you bought the hype and went all in on Tyler Lockett, too? I drafted him and know many folks in the same predicament with the talented, yet non-productive second-year WR. Same as above for Eddie Royal, if your league gives points for returns to the individual, not the team’s defense, then he is definitively worth a roster spot.
I do believe that he is worth hanging on to as a WR as well, though. Before the Seahawks bye week, Lockett was limited due to a knee injury, but should be healthy moving forward and see an uptick in his role on this offense. This week specifically, Seattle’s faces the Falcons, who have given up a league-high 14 passing touchdowns, so not only should you keep him, it might be a good idea to stick him in your starting lineup for Week 6.
Another little tidbit, the Seahawks seem to have a pattern of starting out slow and being more productive as the season goes on, and that goes for fantasy points, too. If you have a bench deep enough to keep Lockett, it’s doubtful a waiver wire guy will outscore him at this point.
And if I’m wrong, at least we will go down together, because he’s still on my roster.
As always thanks so much for all your submissions this week. See you all next Thursday for the 4for4 Mailbag!