DraftKings Week 5 Cash Game Breakdown

DraftKings Week 5 Cash Game Breakdown

By TJ Hernandez (Director of DFS), last update Nov 26, 2016

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TJ is a former full-time poker player who has been playing fantasy football for more than a decade. After online poker was outlawed, TJ ended his poker career and dedicated himself to fantasy football. His background in poker statistics and analytics translates to success in both daily and season-long fantasy football.

Follow TJ Hernandez on Twitter: @TJHernandez.

Picking a profitable lineup in DFS is only half the battle - even a player that is better than two-thirds of the field can lose money if he isn’t selecting his games wisely.

Consider two hypothetical players, Harry and Lloyd, who have both started the season with $1,000 in their bankroll and have played identical lineups through the first four weeks of the season, winning exactly 65% of their head to head games in each of those weeks. Both players have been very unlucky in tournaments, though, and haven’t cashed in a single GPP. The difference is that Harry abides by the 80/20/10 rule (80% of his money in cash games, 20% in GPPs, and 10% of his total bankroll in play each week) while Lloyd’s game mix is 70/30/20. 

Sticking to these bankroll parameters each week, here are Harry and Lloyd’s results after a quarter of the NFL season:

80/20/10 Bankroll Management Strategy
  Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4
Starting Bankroll 1000 996 993 989
H2H Buy Ins 80 80 79 79
GPP Buy Ins 20 20 20 20
H2H Winings 96 96 96 96
GPP Winnings 0 0 0 0
New Bankroll 996 993 989



70/30/20 Bankroll Management Strategy
  Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4
Starting Bankroll 1000 969 939 909
H2H Buy Ins 140 136 131 127
GPP Buy Ins 60 58 56 55
H2H Winnings 169 164 158 154
GPP Winnings 0 0 0 0
New Bankroll 969 939 909 881

Despite playing the same exact lineups in the same games, Harry is down just $14 on the season while Lloyd has lost $119, or over 10% of his bankroll. Neither bankroll approach is inherently wrong, but if your goal is to grind out a profit by primarily winning in cash games, having at least some understanding of the compounding effects of bankroll distribution is paramount -- even a long-term winning player can lose large sums of money in the short-term if they are taking a high-variance approach to bankroll management. 

In addition to bankroll strategy, you can follow this set of DraftKings cash game guidelines which serves as a friendly reminder for what you should be looking for when building your cash game lineups. As always, be sure to take a look at the “Other Players I’d Consider in Cash” section, as you should never be blindly placing a single lineup into any contest. 


QB Tom Brady $7,500 @ CLE

In four games without Tom Brady, the Patriots have been the most run-heavy team in the league, rushing the ball 53.3% of the time. Last season, New England ran the ball on just over two-thirds of their plays, and when adjusted for wins were the most pass-heavy team in the league. With Brady back under center, expect that Pats to return to a pass-first offense against a Cleveland defense that ranks 22nd in quarterback aFPA. Favored by 10.5 with an implied point total over 28, Brady is a four touchdown candidate, especially if you subscribe to the “Angry Tom” Theorem.

Continue reading for more of TJ's top cash game plays.

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