DraftKings Week 5 Cash Game Breakdown

DraftKings Week 5 Cash Game Breakdown

Picking a profitable lineup in DFS is only half the battle - even a player that is better than two-thirds of the field can lose money if he isn’t selecting his games wisely.

Consider two hypothetical players, Harry and Lloyd, who have both started the season with $1,000 in their bankroll and have played identical lineups through the first four weeks of the season, winning exactly 65% of their head to head games in each of those weeks. Both players have been very unlucky in tournaments, though, and haven’t cashed in a single GPP. The difference is that Harry abides by the 80/20/10 rule (80% of his money in cash games, 20% in GPPs, and 10% of his total bankroll in play each week) while Lloyd’s game mix is 70/30/20. 

Sticking to these bankroll parameters each week, here are Harry and Lloyd’s results after a quarter of the NFL season:

80/20/10 Bankroll Management Strategy
  Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4
Starting Bankroll 1000 996 993 989
H2H Buy Ins 80 80 79 79
GPP Buy Ins 20 20 20 20
H2H Winings 96 96 96 96
GPP Winnings 0 0 0 0
New Bankroll 996 993 989

986

 

70/30/20 Bankroll Management Strategy
  Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4
Starting Bankroll 1000 969 939 909
H2H Buy Ins 140 136 131 127
GPP Buy Ins 60 58 56 55
H2H Winnings 169 164 158 154
GPP Winnings 0 0 0 0
New Bankroll 969 939 909 881

Despite playing the same exact lineups in the same games, Harry is down just $14 on the season while Lloyd has lost $119, or over 10% of his bankroll. Neither bankroll approach is inherently wrong, but if your goal is to grind out a profit by primarily winning in cash games, having at least some understanding of the compounding effects of bankroll distribution is paramount -- even a long-term winning player can lose large sums of money in the short-term if they are taking a high-variance approach to bankroll management. 

In addition to bankroll strategy, you can follow this set of DraftKings cash game guidelines which serves as a friendly reminder for what you should be looking for when building your cash game lineups. As always, be sure to take a look at the “Other Players I’d Consider in Cash” section, as you should never be blindly placing a single lineup into any contest. 

 

QB Tom Brady $7,500 @ CLE

In four games without Tom Brady, the Patriots have been the most run-heavy team in the league, rushing the ball 53.3% of the time. Last season, New England ran the ball on just over two-thirds of their plays, and when adjusted for wins were the most pass-heavy team in the league. With Brady back under center, expect that Pats to return to a pass-first offense against a Cleveland defense that ranks 22nd in quarterback aFPA. Favored by 10.5 with an implied point total over 28, Brady is a four touchdown candidate, especially if you subscribe to the “Angry Tom” Theorem.

Continue reading for more of TJ's top cash game plays.

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