Stacking the Deck: FanDuel & DraftKings Stacks - Conference Championship Round
Welcome back to Stacking the Deck. This season at 4for4 we will be providing subscribers with Value Reports and Stack Value Reports that value every stack in terms of projected points/$. We also use our Adjusted Fantasy Points Against (aFPA) metric heavily in the column. What’s new this year is we know have the have the advantage of putting into practice two great offseason studies from my colleague, Senior DFS Editor, Chris Raybon: The Definitive Guide to Stacking on FanDuel and The Definitive Guide to Stacking on DraftKings.
This is the final edition of Stacking the Deck for the 2016-17 NFL season. I want to thank everyone who followed along and hopefully you gained a lot for your own lineup building process along the way.
Two-game slates are very unique. As always, we are going to focus on positive correlations in this column, but also put a higher emphasis on leverage plays in GPPs.
However, with limited options in the player pool, ownership percentages are likely to be much more concentrated than even last week’s four-game slate. This brings up even more game theory considerations and quite honestly puts less of an importance on searching solely for positive correlation and lineup construction that “makes sense.”
The most successful strategy I have found on two game slates is to roll out a complete onslaught. On DraftKings, the most players you can have from one game is five (four on FanDuel) and you must also have exposure to at least three teams as well.
I prefer this strategy for a couple of reasons:
Unique roster construction is much easier to accomplish than low-owned players.
You take a stand on one game.
You have to be right way less often. By that I mean if you pick the right team to onslaught, there is a chance you hit every touchdown in that game. If you pick and choose players from all four teams, you need to be right more frequently to soak up that touchdown equity.
You can focus on optimization for raw points versus wasting exposure trying to find that low-owned dart who likely has significant concerns. Don't forget, you still need to have the right combination around this player if you find him for it to even matter.