DraftKings Week 15 GPP Breakdown
With LeVeon Bell and David Johnson seeing historic usage, many users will opt to build around one of them, therefore almost ensuring they have to follow a high-low approach in terms of their lineup’s salary structure. I think you have to have exposure to both players, but it also makes sense to build at least some lineups utilizing players from the middle tiers in salary. Even if Bell and/or Johnson has a monster game, you may still be able to put yourself in a great position due to unique roster construction of players with low ownership. I also wonder how many lineups will go back to the well by stuffing in Bell and Johnson together given their salary increases and the fact that Johnson effectively canceled out Bell’s big game last week, so I think there’s merit to going that route in some lineups this week as well.
One other noteworthy point: a lot of users will target Falcons players to expose a 49ers defense ranked dead last in offensive aFPA, but it is admittedly tough to get a read on exactly which players will go off for the Falcons in both the running and passing game. We do know that opposing passing games -- and to a lesser extent, opposing offenses -- are correlated, so I like the idea of targeting players on the 49ers offense instead at less ownership against a Falcons defense ranked 27th in total offensive aFPA in a game with the slate's highest over/under (51.5).
Sam Bradford $5,000 vs. IND
Bradford will face a Colts defense ranked 27th in QB aFPA and his receiving options have plus-matchups as well. Also working in Bradford’s favor is the fact he’s a home favorite QB, with betting lines installing his team with an implied total of 24.75 nearly points higher than its season average of 19.8. PPG.
Trevor Siemian $5,200 vs. NE
With his team facing one of the league’s best offenses and his own offense lacking for a running game, Siemian will likely have to air it out. Over his last four games, Siemian is quietly averaging 310.8 yards and 2.0 TDs passing on 40.5 attempts. The Patriots are ranked 28th in QB aFPA. I believe Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas will see elevated ownership after last week's explosion, so I don't want to roster them unless I'm stacking with Siemian. Due to his price, I also think he makes for a nice standalone play.
Continue reading for 26 more of Chris Raybon's top GPP plays!