Stacking the Deck: FanDuel & DraftKings Stacks for Week 10
Welcome back to Stacking the Deck.
This season at 4for4 we will be providing subscribers with Value Reports and Stack Value Reports that value every stack in terms of projected points/$. We also use our Adjusted Fantasy Points Against (aFPA) metric, which has been adjusted to reflect offseason transactions, heavily in the column.
What’s new this year is we know have the have the advantage of putting into practice two great offseason studies from my colleague, Senior DFS Editor, Chris Raybon: The Definitive Guide to Stacking on FanDuel and The Definitive Guide to Stacking on DraftKings.
One thing we as DFS players could be more conscious of is that a tournament lineup for a large field GPP is much different than in a smaller field. Not only can the cash line be much different, but oftentimes in a smaller field, you do not need anything near the perfect lineup to win. Also, being contrarian in larger fields doesn't mean you are fading good players in good spots. Instead of just a dart throw at a wide receiver who gets a few deep targets per game, maybe you opt for the recently underperforming receiver who is at a price point that brings you to a unique lineup construction. Those are the situations I look for.
We are going to focus on positive correlations in this column, but also put a higher emphasis on leverage plays in GPPs this season.
Hopefully you have been following along. We had nice hits in Week 9: Rivers-Williams-Gordon, Santos-Chiefs, and Ajayi-Dolphins just to name a few.
Carson Palmer ($7,900) & Larry Fitzgerald ($7,200) vs. SF
Quarterback and WR1 have a .45 correlation on FanDuel, the strongest of all positions. Arizona’s team total is the highest of the week at 30.75 points and they are home favorites against San Francisco team that will push the pace and give up points -- they rank 22nd and 24th in QB and WR aFPA, respectively. Palmer has struggled mightily this year, but still has the sixth-highest ceiling on the slate (30.3). David Johnson will be the mega-chalk, and deservedly so, but Larry Fitzgerald is in a nice leverage spot this week -- especially on FD where he put up 23.1 points on this team earlier in the season. The Palmer-Fitzgerald stack has a ton of touchdown equity and ranks third-highest of any QB-WR stack. The pairing could be overlooked due to the offense's failure to get back to where they were last season, but this is as good a spot as any for the duo to get back on track.
Cam Newton ($7,800) & Kelvin Benjamin ($7,000) vs. KC
Carolina is at home in a game that could go overlooked with a middling 44 point total. Newton has the highest ceiling at the position in our projections and historically plays much better at home (as do most home quarterbacks that are favorites, by the way). Benjamin hasn’t scored a touchdown in four games, but is still averaging 8.75 targets per game over that span, so positive regression should be coming his way sooner rather than later. Not to mention Benjamin should avoid Marcus Peters for a good majority of the game and draw Phillip Gaines, whom he has five inches and 52 pounds on. The Chiefs rank 17th against WRs in our signature metric, Adjusted Fantasy Points Against (aFPA). The Newton-Benjamin stack should come in at lower ownership and ranks number-five in our FanDuel Stack Value Reports.
Continue reading for 9 more of Joe Holka's top stacks!
Ben Roethlisberger ($7,700) & Antonio Brown ($8,600) & Le’Veon Bell ($8,100) vs. DAL
Pairing a quarterback and WR1 with his own RB1 has a strong correlation. Pittsburgh’s team total is 26.5 points, third-highest of this week’s games. Roethlisberger and Brown have the highest ceiling cumulatively of any QB-WR stack as they perform exceedingly well at home historically opposed to the road. Their ownership will likely be high, but what helps you differentiate yourself is by adding in Bell to this stack. As a home favorite, Bell could pay off big. He has yet to be a touchdown threat this year despite supreme volume. Brown is the chalk for a reason -- he is going to do naughty things to this Cowboys secondary, as they are missing their top-rated cornerback, Morris Claiborne and their top safety Barry Church. The Roethlisberger-Brown-Bell stack is our number-two QB/WR1/RB1 stack for Week 10.
Jameis Winston ($7,800) & Mike Evans ($8,500) & Alshon Jeffery ($7200) TB vs. CHI
Pairing a QB with a teammate as well as his opponent's WR1 has proven to be highly effective. The Bucs-Bears point total is a respectable 45.5 points in a game that is currently a pick'em. The Winston-Evans stack is a fantastic option on its own this week on FanDuel, but why not add the top correlation play from the opposing team? This is something you should almost always be looking to do to differentiate off the chalk. Evans has the largest target market share in the league in the past four games (38.1 percent), while Jeffery has a fantastic matchup against a defense that funnels to the pass (see The Tampa Bay-Oakland game two weeks ago). Evans and Jeffery will be popular plays this week due to their big-play upside, but could be a fantastic GPP pairing with positive correlation in Week 10. Bears cornerback Bryce Callahan is questionable for Week 10, which would help Evans even more. Jeffery will mostly draw rookie corner Vernon Hargreaves, who has been just abused by elite WRs lately. The Winston-Evans-Jeffery stack is the number-six QB/WR/Opp. WR stack in Week 10 according to our FanDuel Stack Value Reports.
Chandler Catanzaro ($4,500) & Cardinals D/ST ($5,200) vs. SF
DEF and K have a .29 correlation, one of the strongest correlations there is. Arizona is a large home favorite with the highest point total of the week (30.75). They are also facing a 49ers team with the lowest point total of the week that is led by led by turnover-and-sack machine Colin Kaepernick, who has impressively taken a sack on 7.1 percent of his dropbacks over the past 12 months. With such a large spread, the 49ers will likely will be forced to take chances to get back into the game, which increases the likelihood of turnovers for the Cardinals defense. The Catanzaro-Cardinals stack is the number-one DEF/K stack on our FanDuel Stack Value Reports.
Melvin Gordon ($8,300) & Chargers D/ST ($4,600) vs. MIA
RB1 and DEF have a .12 correlation. San Diego is a home favorite (-3.5), with the fourth highest team total of the week (26). Gordon boasts the third highest ceiling (27.5 points) on the slate despite facing a Dolphins defense ranked fourth in aFPA to RBs. Volume is king at the position and the Chargers have given Gordon an 86.87 percent rushing share in the past four games, number-one in the NFL. Gordon has also had the most opportunities inside the 10-yard line of any player in the last four games with 14. He continues to be one of the best DFS plays on the board every week and could still see depressed ownership with other high end plays like Johnson and Bell out there this week. The Gordon-Chargers stack is our third-highest ranked RB/DEF stack on our FanDuel Stack Value Reports.
Ben Roethlisberger ($6,800) & Antonio Brown ($8,900) vs. DAL
Quarterback and WR1 have a .46 correlation on DraftKings, the strongest of all positions. Pittsburgh is a slight home favorite (-2.5), but the Steelers team total is third-highest on the slate (26.5). We talked about this stack above with Le’Veon Bell but Roethlisberger-Brown is almost always in play on its own at home if you can differentiate elsewhere in your tournament lineups. The Roethlisberger-Brown stack is the number-one QB-WR stack on our DraftKings Stack Value Reports in regards to ceiling.
Carson Palmer ($6,500) & David Johnson ($8,400) vs. SF
When a quarterback scores 25 or more on DraftKings, the RB1 is roughly as likely to also hit 25 as the WR2 or TE1. Arizona is a heavy home favorite and Johnson is the clear number-one RB play on the board against a SF defense that has been torched on the ground. The way to differentiate off that chalk would be to pair him with his quarterback. In his last four games, Johnson has seen the sixth-most opportunities inside the 10-yard line in the league (10) and represents a 77.31 percent rushing share. Johnson is completely matchup-proof, while Palmer gets a 49ers secondary ranked 22nd in QB aFPA and comes at a low salary. The Palmer-Johnson stack is the #1 QB/RB stack on our DraftKings Stack Value Reports.
Carson Wentz ($5,400) & Jordan Matthews ($5,900) & Julio Jones (9,500) PHI vs. ATL
As I mentioned earlier, pairing a QB with a teammate as well as his opponent's WR1 has proven to be highly effective. The Eagles-Falcons point total is the second-highest of the week (50). Whenever possible I like to correlate my stacks with an opposing wide receiver. With such a weak linebacker group, the Falcons have given up a ton through the middle this year. Matthews runs over 70 percent of his routes from the slot and should avoid Desmond Trufant most of the game. Wentz and the Eagles may have to pass more this week to keep up with Atlanta’s high-flying offense and Matthews has seen 25 percent of the team target share over the past four games. Julio, on the other hand, is going to eat against Nolan Carroll who struggled in Week 9 against Odell Beckham consistently creating separation.
Tom Brady ($7,400) & Rob Gronkowski ($6,900) & Doug Baldwin ($5,800) NE vs. SEA
Using the same thought process as above, pairing a highly owned stack with a contrarian play or high-volume situation is a plus-EV strategy in DFS. New England is a home favorite (-7.5) in the game with the fourth-highest total of the week (52.5). From an efficiency standpoint, Brady has been lights out this year and Gronk is back to being Gronk. Even as a tight end, he boasts an absurd 33 percent market share of Air Yards over the past four games, a predictive stat for big plays. Baldwin is cheap, and has some positive touchdown regression coming his way and numbers will only go up as Wilson gets healthier. He could be a nice leverage play off of Jimmy Graham in a game you definitely want a piece of. The Brady-Gronkowski-Baldwin stack is the number-four QB/REC1/Opp.REC1 for Week 10 according to our trusty DraftKings Stack Value Reports.
David Johnson ($8,400) & Cardinals D/ST ($3,700) vs. SF
RB1 and DEF have a .11 correlation. Arizona is heavily favored at home with the highest spread on the slate (-13.5). Common theme this week: fade David Johnson at your own risk. This is a prime example volume you don’t want to fade in the perfect storm of situations. There are plenty of other ways to be contrarian than steering clear of the top RB-DEF stack on DraftKings this week.