Ownership Projections for FanDuel and DraftKings - Week 1

Ownership Projections for FanDuel and DraftKings - Week 1

By Kevin Zatloukal (4for4 Contributor), last update Sep 9, 2016

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Kevin is a Ph.D. computer scientist. His doctoral work at MIT was focused on quantum algorithms. During the fantasy offseason, he teaches computer science at the University of Washington, his alma mater.

Follow Kevin Zatloukal on Twitter: @kczat.

Each week, 4for4 will project player ownership on FanDuel and DraftKings. This information will be important when constructing your tournament lineups because including a few productive players with low ownership is a key component to coming out on top in a large contest.

Predicting ownership is an especially difficult problem because, rather than trying to determine which players will overperform, we are trying to determine whether other people think they will overperform. We will continually update and improve our algorithm as the season goes on, but for Week 1, our estimates will be fairly coarse.

To make our estimates this week, we started with ownership numbers from GPPs that started on Thursday. FanDuel no longer makes lineups available after the Thursday game starts, but Fantasy Aces still does, and @TwoQBs on Twitter was kind enough to make that information available. Going forward, we will collect ownership data from Fantasy Aces ourselves for as long as the site permits.

After adjusting for differences in roster requirements and prices between the two sites, we came up with the estimates below.

Note: DraftKings' main slate is Sunday only, which is why players from the Steelers-Redskins and Rams-49ers Monday Night games are zeroed out.


Player FD % DK %
Dak Prescott 20 20
Matthew Stafford 15 15
Derek Carr 15 15
Kirk Cousins 5  
Drew Brees 5 5
Russell Wilson 5 5
Eli Manning 7 5
Ben Roethlisberger 5  
Andrew Luck 2 2
Brock Osweiler 2 5
Carson Palmer 2 2
Jameis Winston 2 2
Tyrod Taylor 2 2
Aaron Rodgers 2 2
Blake Bortles 2 2
Matt Ryan 2 2
Robert Griffin III 2 2
all others ~1 ~1

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