MFL10 ADP Free Agency Fallout

MFL10 ADP Free Agency Fallout

By Mike Margossian (MFL10 Expert), last update Mar 17, 2016

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Mike has been playing fantasy sports for 20 years, enjoying different formats along the way and even making some up for the hell of it. He has become a trusted source of best ball (MFL10) strategy with top results in 2014 and 2015. Mike has lived in Excel since before he could walk, vote, or drink legally; he tries to use that to his advantage in fantasy football and marriage. That and beer, lots and lots of beer.

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This article will look at the ADP change of players affected from the free agency moves in the past week. Free agency saw some players re-sign with their previous team, but also saw a fair share of players move on to a new team. I will highlight these players as well as players that now have new competition on their team. 

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If you haven’t read it yet, read John Paulsen’s 2016 Free Agency Tracker article. 

Quarterbacks were generally unaffected by moves or re-signings. Sam Bradford is still one of the last quarterbacks taken and is a solid third quarterback to have, which did not change. The top free agent running backs , Lamar Miller and DeMarco Murray, also have not seen their ADP changed much as they were going around RB8 and RB20, respectively, both before and after their signings. Bilal Powell re-signed with the Jets, which should have helped his value, but the signings of Matt Forte and Khiry Robinson kept Powell’s value roughly where it started.


Running Backs

The main running back signing that affected players on both his former and new teams was DeMarco Murray signing with the Titans. As you can see in the table below, this boosted the value (jumping almost 30 spots) of Ryan Mathews as he currently does not have any competition in Philadelphia. Murray’s value itself did not change much as it seems most are looking at his move as a lateral move. On the other side of the coin, Murray landing in Tennessee crushed any upside that David Cobb had, going from a 13th round upside selection to a very end of the draft flyer. Murray also squashed any hope that Bishop Sankey had at all, going from a very late round flyer to undraftable. 

Post Free Agency RB ADP Changes
Name Pos Team Pre-FA Since FA Change
Mathews, Ryan RB PHI 112.7 83.5 29.2
Sankey, Bishop RB TEN 223.0 241.0 -18.0
Cobb, David RB TEN 153.6 202.2 -48.6


Wide Receivers

This off-season we saw a few mediocre wide receivers sign with new teams causing their cost to jump up, as everyone likes the shiny new toy. The biggest jump is from Mohamed Sanu. Going to the Falcons, the perception is that he will be the WR2 and get a lot of single coverage opposite of Julio Jones. Still just going at pick 150, Sanu’s risk isn’t too high and can be a great WR5 or WR6 to have on your roster. The other big riser was Chris Hogan signing with the Patriots, jumping Hogan up a few rounds, though still towards the end of the draft. Best ball really helps a guy like Hogan going to the Patriots where, depending on the matchup in a given week, he could put up a few quality starts. 

While not free agents, the other two big risers were the Steelers wide receivers after the Martavis Bryant suspension news broke,  as Sammie Coates and Markus Wheaton jumped 43 spots each. Wheaton, who is perceived as the WR2 now, jumped up to the top of the 12th round. Sammie Coates jumped up to the 14th round, which seems rather high for a potential fifth receiving option behind, Antonio Brown, Le’Veon Bell, Ladarius Green, and Markus Wheaton

Three other receivers, Marvin Jones, Travis Benjamin, and Rishard Matthews, saw a slight price increase after landing their new roles. As these were somewhat hot names in the free agency season, most people were drafting them with most of their new value baked in, as seen by how little their ranking increased. Due to their new competition, players like Stevie Johnson and Kendall Wright are falling back in the draft a round or two. I really like Kendall Wright as a sleeper now that his ADP has been knocked down with the Matthews signing. 

Post Free Agency WR ADP Changes
Name Pos Team Pre-FA Since FA Change
Sanu, Mohamed WR ATL 204.2 148.6 55.6
Hogan, Chris WR NEP 219.8 168.8 51.0
Wheaton, Markus WR PIT 163.6 120.5 43.1
Coates, Sammie WR PIT 202.4 159.6 42.8
Jones, Marvin WR DET 98.3 84.3 14.0
Benjamin, Travis WR SDC 117.0 107.5 9.5
Matthews, Rishard WR TEN 169.9 161.5 8.4
Johnson, Stevie WR SDC 177.8 185.0 -7.2
Wright, Kendall WR TEN 100.8 121.5 -20.7

Tight Ends

A lot of chips fell very well for tight ends this year in free agency. Dwayne Allen (re-signing with Colts) and Coby Fleener (signing with the Saints) breaking up skyrocketed both of their values, jumping about 50 spots each. The other big signing was Ladarius Green, who finally gets away from future Hall of Famer Antonio Gates by signing with the Steelers. Green rose about 25 spots after the signing. With the Martavis Bryant suspension not fully accounted for in this data, expect his cost to keep going up. 

Conversely, the tight ends on these teams that were thought to have a chance in Jesse James (on the Steelers) and Josh Hill (on the Saints) saw their value drop 30-40 spots, making them virtually undraftable.

Zach Miller re-signing with the Bears saw his value jump up 17 spots, which will only increase now that Martellus Bennett has been traded to the Patriots. Miller is a quality second tight end to have on your roster, especially if you can get him past pick 150. 

Post Free Agency TE ADP Changes
Name Pos Team Pre-FA Since FA Change
Allen, Dwayne TE IND 182.4 131.6 50.8
Fleener, Coby TE NOS 157.6 109.2 48.4
Green, Ladarius TE PIT 131.4 104.8 26.6
Miller, Zach TE CHI 184.8 167.6 17.2
Hill, Josh TE NOS 208.8 239.0 -30.3
James, Jesse TE PIT 197.8 237.0 -39.2
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