Bales Goes Deep: EV, Phone Home

Bales Goes Deep: EV, Phone Home

By Jonathan Bales (Daily Fantasy Expert), last update Oct 13, 2015

Jonathan Bales's picture

Jonathan Bales is a DraftKings Pro and the author of the Fantasy Football for Smart People book series. His latest book, How to Win at Daily Fantasy Sports, is a data-driven guide to winning on DraftKings. He is also (unofficially) sponsored by GrubHub.

Follow Jonathan Bales on Twitter: @BalesFootball.

I woke up at 4:00 am on Sunday to work on daily fantasy lineups. In hindsight, it would have been better for me financially if I had been hung over and just stayed in bed, but them’s the breaks. You know you have a weird life when getting messed up and missing work could potentially help you afford to splurge for guac.


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A few hours in on Sunday, I started to get hungry. There’s almost no food in my house at the moment—two cans of soup, some dried cranberries, like six frozen mini Nestle Crunch bars that I get out of my Lunchables and don’t eat (but still store because YOU NEVER KNOW), bread (expired), and SO MANY condiments. So many condiments. I don’t have actual food for guests, but if they bring their own, my house is the place to be. You bring the hot dogs, buns, chips, and beer; I got relish and four empty pepperoncini jars.

That reminds me of a great Hannibal Burress joke about pickle juice. It starts at 1:29 below, but you should just watch the whole thing.

I actually started flicking pickle juice on my sandwiches for flavor back in the 90s, but it’s whatever.

You might be asking what this intro has to do with anything whatsoever. Honestly I just started writing about what I was thinking this morning. Now I have to figure out how to tie it to DFS. The answer is EV.


What is EV?

EV is expected value, and it’s the reason the answer to the question ‘Was it smart for me to get up early and build DFS lineups even though I lost money?’ is ‘yes.’

The definition of expected value is “the sum of all possible values for a random variable, each value multiplied by its probability of occurrence.”

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