DraftKings Week 5 GPP Breakdown
In a low-scoring Week 4, ChipotleAddict took home the Millionaire Maker grand prize with a extremely low-owned stack.
With Blake Bortles at one percent owned and Allen Hurns at 2.6 percent, almost no one had the stack, which was also very cheap and allowed ChipotleAddict to fill out his roster with dependable, high-volume players.
In the space below, I'll focus on players I believe to be strong tournament plays based on potentially high volume, multi-touchdown upside, and low projected ownership. I won't blurb the chalk plays (Tom Brady, LeVeon Bell, Julian Edelman, Larry Fitzgerald, Jeremy Maclin, Keenan Allen, Rob Gronkowski, and the Broncos) -- they're all justifiable GPP options, but you won't take home big money by stuffing your entire lineup with chalk. Use chalk plays selectively, a few at a time, filling out the rest of your roster with players likely to be low-owned who have high-volume and multi-touchdown upside. As usual, I draw heavily from my Ownership Outlook column, and all the players I highlight below are players I believe you should have more exposure to than the field. Since who you fade can be just as important as who you play in a GPP, I've also added a "Fades" section at the end where I briefly highlight any highly-owned players that I believe you should have less exposure to than the field, or no exposure at all to.
Editor's Note: The 4for4 Championship is still going strong in Week 5 - and now we're rolling out something special! This week's tournament still awards 5 Championship seats and $7,000 in cash prizes, but in Week 5 you can enter for only $5 (instead of $10) and you can also win a FREE VIP TRIP to Las Vegas for the World Fantasy Football Championship Event in December! The trip will include a hotel room and round trip flight, as well as access to FanDuel's exclusive parties the weekend of the event. This will be the weekend of a lifetime, and your best chance to get there is in the 4for4 Championship. Draft a team now!
For the first time all season, fantasy WR1 Julio Jones ($9,200) wasn't amongst the top three highest-owned WRs on Thursday FanDuel slates. I'd suggest shaking off last week's game-script-induced clunker. The Redskins 24th-ranked defense in WR aFPA is missing CB DeAngelo Hall, plus CB Chris Culliver has a knee issue. Washington has allowed opposing WRs to post 16.8 yards per catch, 10.6 yards per target, and TDs on 11 percent of their targets over the last three weeks. Nine of the Falcons' 15 offensive TDs have come on the ground this season, but the league average of two passing TDs for every rushing TD suggests regression is coming, which would help Matt Ryan ($6,700). Matty Ice is second in the NFL in passing yards -- the only thing missing has been TDs. The 'Skins rank 25th in QB aFPA.
SUNDAY MORNING UPDATE: Jones (hamstring) was listed as questionable on the injury report and reports are he likely will play, but it is worth noting that his questionable tag represents a downgrade from his probable tag going in to last week's game. If Jones is at less than 100 percent, it would make stacking Ryan with Leonard Hankerson ($4,000) a viable option.
Keenan Allen is a chalk play for good reason, but don't forget about Philip Rivers ($6,200). Rivers leads the NFL in passing yards and his salary is down $900 since the season started. Pittsburgh is allowing a 70-percent completion rate, 7:2 TD-to-interception ratio, and 100.4 passer rating.
Detroit has allowed a 78 percent completion rate (last in the NFL), 9.1 yards per pass attempt (30th), and ranks 29th in QB aFPA. Coming off a $200 price drop from last week, Carson Palmer ($6,700) was under five-percent owned on Thursday FanDuel slates and has as much upside as any QB in Bruce Arians' agressive vertical offense.
Eagles-Saints has the second-highest over/under (49) on the slate, yet players on both teams were barely owned on Thursday FanDuel slates. Philly has a 27.25 Vegas total, one of the week's highest. Sam Bradford ($6,000) -- who was three percent owned on Thursday -- finally started throwing deep last week, and it resulted in a 270 yards and three TDs. New Orleans is ranked last in the NFL in QB aFPA. Jordan Matthews's price ($6,400) has come down $800 since the season began and he's seen eight targets in every game. Bradford just missed him on a long bomb that would have been a TD last week.
On the Saints' side of the ball, Drew Brees ($7,200) has thrown for more than 350 yards twice in three games this season. His salary is down $800 since the season began and is at the lowest point it's ever been. The Eagles rank 26th in QB aFPA and Brees isn't on the injury report this week. Don't sleep on Willie Snead ($3,000), who's averaging a 4-60-0.25 and leads all Saints WRs in fantasy points this season. On Sunday Night Football, Cris Collinsworth mentioned that Brees and the Saints are extremely high on Snead, who's seen his reception count increase from four to five to six over the past three weeks. The Eagles rank 31st in WR aFPA.
DraftKings is basically giving Jameis Winston away for free at $5,100 -- down $900 from where it opened the season. He faces a Jaguars defense that he may have to throw on: the Jaguars rank 25th in FBO's pass defense DVOA, but fourth in run defense DVOA. Mike Evans's price ($6,100) is down a whopping $1,600 since the season started and he's averaged 12.5 targets per game over his two healthy games this season. Evans had a 7-101 Week 3 before Vincent Jackson's ($5,000) 10-147-1 last week. The pendumlum usually swings back in these situations, but Jackson is in play as well at a price tag that's down $1,000 since the season started.
Blake Bortles ($5,100) is also basically free on DraftKings -- he's 10.2 percent of the cap on here, compared to 11.5 percent on FanDuel. Bortles has appeal at his price because he is throwing deep at double the rate he was last year. The Bucs haven't seen a high volume of pass attempts this year, but rank 25th in passer rating allowed (100.6). The Jags' offense is highly concentrated, with Allen Robinson ($5,500) and Allen Hurns ($4,500) accounting for 46 percent of the team's targets, making both of them attractive options.
Dion Lewis $4,800 @ DAL - Even though Lewis's forte is catching passes (he averages five per game), he costs only 9.6 percent of the cap here on DraftKings, compared to 11.1 on FanDuel. The Cowboys rank 25th in RB aFPA, and have allowed the second-most receiving yards and fourth-most receptions in the league to RBs.
Todd Gurley $4,300 @ GB - I want exposure to Gurley on DraftKings, where he's 8.6 percent of the cap, as opposed to FanDuel, where he's 11.1 percent of the cap. The shackles were taken off Gurley in the second half last week, as he saw the ball on 53 percent of the team's plays. Gurley has four runs of 20-plus yards last week, more than 25 NFL teams have this season.
Jamaal Charles $7,800 vs. CHI - Charles averages an ungodly 0.41 receiving TDs -- and 1.2 total TDs -- across 22 games under Andy Reid when the Chiefs are favorites. They're nine-point favorites on Sunday against the Bears.
Justin Forsett $5,800 vs. CLE - Despite coming off a 27-150 game where his offensive line finally got on track, Forsett's price is down $400 since the season began and hasn't been lower since Week 10 of 2014. As a 6.5-point favorite, he squares off with a Browns team getting gashed by opposing RBs to the tune of 5.1 yards per carry.
Matt Forte $7,000 @ KC - Forte's price is $800 lower than when the season began and hasn't been lower since 2013. It went as high as $10,100 last season and not much has changed except he has an even more run-oriented head coach in John Fox, who's feeding him 24.3 touches per game. Forte has similar upside to Charles and LeVeon Bell, but was owned under five percent on Thursday FanDuel slates.
New York Giants $2,900 vs. SF - There’s no better QB to target right now than Colin Kaepernick, who has a 2:5 TD-to-interception ratio on the season, and has taken the third-most sacks (14) in the league. The 49ers are seven-point road underdogs with a team total of 18 and rank 30th in defense aFPA.
I've been heavily on Devonta Freeman ($6,300) for the past two weeks, but this week I'm going to ease off a bit. Whereas last week Freeman's ownership was in the teens, this week he was the highest-owned player on the entire Thursday FanDuel slate, and I'd expect the same on DraftKings. Freeman is due for TD regression -- as I mentioned, the Falcons have scored 9-of-15 TDs on the ground, but the league average split is two passing TDs for every rushing TD.