DraftKings Week 16 GPP Breakdown
Cflanders002's lineup was pretty standard. His QB was relatively low owned (Cam Newton at 8.5%). He combined a chalk RB (David Johnson) with a low owned RB (Danny Woodhead) to create his backfield. He had two expensive WRs (Antonio Brown and Allen Robinson) as well as one cheap contrarian play (Dontrelle Inman).
What is notable about Cflanders002's lineup is that not of of his players "hit" (notably Robinson and Inman), but he was still able to win by combining enough of the highest scorers of the day. For example, Cflanders002 could have spent the $11,700 he used on Brown and Inman differently, and probably done better than Inman's 10.8 points, but he could not have replaced Brown's 49.9. Therefore, Inman's 10.8 was still valuable because it allowed the Inman/Brown combo to rack up 60.7 points combined, which would not many other combinations priced $11,700 or less could have achieved.
Selecting a pool of players to target in GPPs is only half the battle; you also have to put them all together. With that in mind, I’ve revamped the format of this column. With an eye toward lineup construction, I’ve grouped players to target by lineup slot.
I’ve also created a “profile” for each position and lineup slot. This specifies the salary range and ownership level that will generally give you the best odds. These profiles reflect data I have compiled from each of the 15 lineups of this year’s Millionaire Maker, DraftKings’ largest GPP. You will see the information reflected in the profiles, but I want to point out some important trends from the winning lineups before we get into the plays.
- Go contrarian at QB: QBs in winning lineups have an average ownership of 7.5%, the lowest of any position group by far.
- Pay up at WR: On average, the most expensive WR in a winning lineup costs $8,300 and the second-most-expensive WR costs $6,900. No other lineup slot has an average of over $6,200.
- One chalk play at RB, WR is OK: The average highest-owned RB in a winning lineup was owned 27%. The average highest-owned WR was owned 31%. Those represent huge drop-offs from the other RBs (13% including flex) and WRs (12% including flex).
- TEs have not been good FLEX options: RBs were in the flex spot of the winning lineups 53% of the time, WRs 47%, TEs 0%.
- Salary Allocation: The average salary allocation per lineup slot, from highest to lowest is WR1, WR2, RB1, QB, WR3, RB2, TE, FLEX, DST
- Make the chalk work for you; also know where to go contrarian: The average ownership per lineup slot, from highest to lowest is WR1, RB1, WR2, D, RB2, TE, WR3, QB, FLEX.
When a player is listed under a heading with multiple lineup slots, i.e. "WR 1/2", it means that player can be used to fill either slot.
I also list the (projected) chalk plays -- defined as the highest owned player at a position or any player projected to push 20% owned -- at each slot, gleaned from my Tournament Ownership Outlook column. Listed chalk plays are still recommended plays unless they do not appear in bold. However, you should generally limit yourself to one chalk play apiece at RB and WR and generally not have more than three chalk plays total in a lineup.
Note: This column was written before Thursday ownership percentages were out, so the chalk plays are educated guesses.
My hope is that casual readers will now have more direction as far as how to actually construct a winning GPP lineup, rather than just identify players to target. On the other hand, more advanced readers who prefer to do further independent research can still use the profiles as a lineup construction template even if they do not agree with some of the listed plays.
A note on pairing the players from the same team/game: In general, players from opposing passing games should be paired up whenever possible. Obviously, QBs and WRs on the same team should be stacked whenever possible, as should RBs and defenses on the same team. QBs and RBs on the same team have a slightly positive correlation and should not be avoided. RB and WR has a slight negative correlation, but it's so small that the pairing should not be avoided either.
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QB Profile: Median salary $6,300, average ownership 8%. QBs are generally under $7,000 and under 10% owned.
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