Exploiting Defenses in DFS - Week 14

Exploiting Defenses in DFS - Week 14

By Mike Woellert (IDP Expert), last update Dec 13, 2015

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Mike is an IDP veteran, writing about and ranking IDP for over six season. He finished 6th in overall IDP rankings and 1st overall LB rankings in 2014 at FantasyPros. When he's not poring over IDP depth charts, he can be found agonizing over his Cleveland sports teams.

Follow Mike Woellert on Twitter: @Mike_Woellert.

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When it comes to DFS lineups, looking at matchups and opportunities will be key in constructing a winning lineup. Everyone knows that Dez Bryant is a top receiver and sometimes the matchup doesn’t play out, like last week. Bryant is typically one of the top-priced wide receivers, but there will always be one with a cheaper price tag in a similar spot for production with a better matchup. It’s worth noting that Dez’s price tag has dropped below $7,500, but he is dealing with a bad QB situation.

We’ve hit Week 14 and sample sizes have become trends. If a particular cornerback is getting burned, he’s someone to target each week. The same goes for run defense. At this point of the season, if a defense is bad, they aren’t going to magically improve, so start to use the numbers to your advantage.

It’s one thing to look at match-ups and see which team is allowing points to a position. Each week, I’ll help you exploit specific defensive players and also touch on non-skill offensive players (read: the offensive line) to help you make the right choices on which players to roster and which players to fade in DFS lineups.

Last week we had our hits with Odell Beckham, Jr., Martavis Bryant, Mike Evans, Javorius Allen and Thomas Rawls. We also had our misses with Ryan Tannehill, Jay Cutler and Brandon LaFell. Let’s enjoy the wins and try to increase our hit rate even more in Week 14.


Situations to Exploit in the Passing Game

The switch has flipped for Sammy Watkins over the last several games since the bye week. After producing just 147 yards in seven games, he’s amassed 488 in his last five. This week, Watkins should draw rookie cornerback Eric Rowe in coverage. In his last two games, Rowe has been thrown at 22 times, allowing 11 catches for 128 yards and two scores. He did a solid job last week against the Patriots, but Watkins is a better receiver than anyone Rowe faced in Week 13. Bills beat writer, Tyler Dunne, has said they want to move Watkins around and get him matched up on LBs. I look for Sammy’s hot streak to continue this week and he should return value on his $7,200 tag on FanDuel.

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