Exploiting Defenses in DFS - Week 13

Exploiting Defenses in DFS - Week 13

By Mike Woellert (IDP Expert), last update Dec 6, 2015

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Mike is an IDP veteran, writing about and ranking IDP for over six season. He finished 6th in overall IDP rankings and 1st overall LB rankings in 2014 at FantasyPros. When he's not poring over IDP depth charts, he can be found agonizing over his Cleveland sports teams.

Follow Mike Woellert on Twitter: @Mike_Woellert.

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When it comes to DFS lineups, looking at matchups and opportunities will be key in constructing a winning lineup. Everyone knows that DeAndre Hopkins is a top receiver and sometimes the matchup doesn’t play out, like last week. Hopkins is typically one of the top-priced wide receivers, but there will always be one with a cheaper price tag in a similar spot for production with a better matchup. It’s worth noting that Hopkins’s price tag has dropped below $9,000, however.

We’ve hit Week 13 and sample sizes have become trends. If a particular cornerback is getting burned, he’s someone to target each week. The same goes for run defense. At this point of the season, if a defense is bad, they aren’t going to magically improve, so start to use the numbers to your advantage.

It’s one thing to look at match-ups and see which team is allowing points to a position. Each week, I’ll help you exploit specific defensive players and also touch on non-skill offensive players (read: the offensive line) to help you make the right choices on which players to roster and which players to fade in DFS lineups.

Last week we had our hits with Marcus Mariota, Travis Benjamin, Martavis Bryant, Javorius Allen and Chris Ivory. We also had our misses with Vincent Jackson, DeAndre Hopkins and Michael Crabtree. Let’s enjoy the wins and try to increase our hit rate even more in Week 13.


Situations to Exploit in the Passing Game

I really like Jay Cutler's spot this week with a plus matchup against the 49ers defense. The San Francisco cornerbacks would have trouble covering a wall if they were wallpaper. Kenneth Acker has been responsible for a near-70-percent completion rate and a 106.7 QB rating on balls thrown his way, and has allowed four TDs. Jimmie Ward hasn't been any better, as he's been responsible for three scores and a 78 percent completion rate on a 116.8 QB rating. Cutler has a 7:2 TD-to-INT ratio in his last five games and should be able to pick this secondary apart in a great matchup at home.

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