Exploiting Defenses in DFS - Week 12

Exploiting Defenses in DFS - Week 12

By Mike Woellert (IDP Expert), last update Nov 27, 2015

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Mike is an IDP veteran, writing about and ranking IDP for over six season. He finished 6th in overall IDP rankings and 1st overall LB rankings in 2014 at FantasyPros. When he's not poring over IDP depth charts, he can be found agonizing over his Cleveland sports teams.

Follow Mike Woellert on Twitter: @Mike_Woellert.

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When it comes to DFS lineups, looking at matchups and opportunities will be key in constructing a winning lineup. Everyone knows that A.J. Green is a top receiver, but that doesn’t necessarily make him a slam dunk starter every week in DFS and sometimes the matchup doesn’t play out. Green is typically one of the top wide receivers, but there will always be one with a cheaper price tag in a similar spot for production with a better matchup. Although, it’s worth noting that Green’s price tag is still reasonable.

It’s Thanksgiving week, so I just wanted to take the time to wish everyone a Happy Thanksgiving. Thank for reading this piece weekly and for the feedback and comments. I hope you enjoy the food, family and football this Thanksgiving.

We’re hitting Week 12 and sample sizes have become trends. If a particular cornerback is getting burned, he’s someone to target each week. The same goes for run defense. At this point of the season, if a defense is bad, they aren’t going to magically improve, so start to use the numbers to your advantage.

It’s one thing to look at match-ups and see which team is allowing points to a position. Each week, I’ll help you exploit specific defensive players and also touch on non-skill offensive players (read: the offensive line) to help you make the right choices on which players to roster and which players to fade in DFS lineups.

Last week we had our hits with Dez Bryant, Golden Tate, Brock Osweiler and Darren McFadden. We also had our misses with Jordan Matthews, Derek Carr, Eric Ebron and Tavon Austin. Let’s enjoy the wins and try to increase our hit rate even more in Week 12.


Situations to Exploit in the Passing Game

Brian Hoyer returns as Houston’s starting QB and just in time, too. He finds himself staring at a plus matchup against the New Orleans Saints, who just recently made Kirk Cousins look like a Hall of Famer. The Saints are allowing 25.34 fantasy points per game to opposing QBs, and the only QB not to hit 18 points was Brandon Weeden. The Saints have a collection of some of the worst cornerbacks in the league: they allow a QB rating of 112.4 on balls thrown their way as a collective group. Brandon Browner has given up 579 yards in coverage, while Delvin Breaux, while he’s allowing a 50 percent completion rate, has given up 597 yards and eight TDs and a 118 QB rating.

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