Bales Goes Deep: Wow, That’s a Really Big Sample!

Bales Goes Deep: Wow, That’s a Really Big Sample!

By Jonathan Bales (Daily Fantasy Expert), last update Nov 17, 2015

Jonathan Bales's picture

Jonathan Bales is a DraftKings Pro and the author of the Fantasy Football for Smart People book series. His latest book, How to Win at Daily Fantasy Sports, is a data-driven guide to winning on DraftKings. He is also (unofficially) sponsored by GrubHub.

Follow Jonathan Bales on Twitter: @BalesFootball.

We’ve all been there before. Late night, bring a girl back to the crib and open up your spreadsheets, only to have her exclaim, “I can’t work with that! Too big of a sample!”


“Yeah, there’s no way that’s targeted. It will never fit in this specific instance.”

Ugh. #ExcelLife, amirite?

Now I don’t actually have this problem because I always have the just-right Goldilocks sample; I was lying to seem more like the common man. But some of you have expressed concern with the sizes of your respective samples, not knowing when to trust that a small one will really do the job.

Well, the old adage is true. It’s not the size of your sample that matters; it’s what you do with it. Bigger might not always be better.


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Large vs. Small Samples

We shouldn’t always dismiss small samples, especially not in daily fantasy football. With just 16 games per season, we often have only small samples with which to work.

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