10 for 10 with Ian: Top Plays on FantasyAces - Nobody Believes in Us Edition

10 for 10 with Ian: Top Plays on FantasyAces - Nobody Believes in Us Edition

By Ian Hartitz (4for4 Contributor), last update Nov 19, 2015

Ian Hartitz's picture

Recent graduate of the University of Chicago. I write about Ohio State football for Land-Grant Holy Land and all things DFS. "It is so easy to be average. It takes a little something to be special. Why be around average?" - Urban Meyer

Follow Ian Hartitz on Twitter: @ihartitz.

One of my personal favorite, non-analytically based sports storylines is the “nobody believes in us” mantra that can overtake a team or player. While the end result (the team rallying around one another and achieving more than anyone ever thought was possible) is usually about the same for the “Nobody Believes in Us” teams, there are several different ways in which a team or player can come to the conclusion that nobody believes in them.

Nobody Believes in Us Scenario #1: A surprise upstart team suffers a crucial loss at a position and are written off for dead after being forced to substitute the backup.

Nobody Believes in Us Scenario #2: Despite overwhelming evidence that a team or player is actually good and here to stay, the public continues to not give the team or player the respect they feel they deserve.

Nobody Believes in Us Scenario #3: A struggling team or player is essentially written off by the whole league, until a few wins leads to some momentum and the belief that once again, nobody believes in them.

This week my 10 picks are littered with players who most of you (myself included) likely couldn’t have named this time last year. Whether they just were not quite good enough, or didn’t have enough opportunities, almost every play this week has some type of “Nobody Believes in Us” mojo working for them right now. Luckily for you, our analytics actually do believe in these players, and when you can combine a cliché sports storyline with solid analytics, well, that’s a win for everybody involved.


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QB Case Keenum $4,500 @ Baltimore, Nobody Believes in Us (NBIU) Scenario #1

The Rams, like any other Jeff Fisher coached team, are locked in yet another battle with the .500 mark. With a very good defense and the best running back in football, the problem in St. Louis is very obvious: the quarterback. Nick Foles’s 27-2 TD/INT ratio in his 2013 season with the Eagles is looking more and more like a result of Chip Kelly, and Foles’s benching this week after a very uninspiring 7-6 TD/INT start is more evidence to this point. Well, don’t worry Rams faithful, because Case Keenum is back in St. Louis to save the day. That’s right, Keenum was on the Rams last season too, but was cut to make room for safety Mark Barron. Best known for throwing more collegiate touchdown passes than literally anyone ever, there’s no doubt about Keenum’s ability to spin the football through the air; the concern is about where the football will end up. However, all you should be concerned with is Keenum’s $4,500 price tag (tied for the lowest with T.J. Yates, who has a date with Darrell Revis and the Jets this weekend) and the Ravens 30th ranked defense in QB aFPA.

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