DraftKings Week 10 GPP Breakdown
Week 9 Millionaire Maker winner Skeener917 took down the grand prize off the strength of a Marcus Mariota-Delanie Walker stack against a horrible Saints defense. (I have no idea why the ownership percentages are showing up as zero, so don't ask.)
Skeener917 also used something I've discussed previously: opposing passing game correlations. The success of Antonio Brown and Michael Crabtree worked synergistically, forcing both the Steelers and Raiders to continue airing it out. Oh, and Brown and DeAngelo Williams don't care about negative correlation.
In the space below, I'll focus on players I believe to be strong tournament plays based on their potential for high volume, multi-touchdown upside, and low projected ownership. I won't blurb the chalk plays (Tom Brady, Blake Bortles, Todd Gurley, DeAngelo Williams, Allen Robinson, Michael Crabtree and Tyler Eifert) -- they're all justifiable GPP options (with Bortles, Williams, and Robinson being particularly elite options), but you won't take home big money by stuffing your entire lineup with chalk. Use chalk plays selectively, a few at a time, filling out the rest of your roster with players likely to be low-owned who have high-volume and multi-touchdown upside in their range of outcomes.
As usual, I draw heavily from my Tournament Ownership Outlook column, and all the players I highlight below are players I believe you should have more exposure to than the field. Since who you fade can be just as important as who you play in a GPP, I've also added a "Fades" section at the end where I briefly highlight any highly-owned players that I believe you should have less exposure to than the field, or no exposure at all to.
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Despite averaging 19.8 points per game this season (28th in NFL), the Redskins have a Vegas implied team total of nearly 25 points. This is an exploitable situation, as no member of the Redskins offense costs more than $5,400. Kirk Cousins ($5,200) is in a great spot against a Saints defense has been so bad statistically, they essentially turn every opposing QB into Dan Marino in his prime. The Saints rank 32nd in QB Rating (112.6),31st in TD percentage (7.4), and 30th in passing yards per game (292.2), so it's not surprising they rank 32nd in QB aFPA -- if we could rank them 33rd, we would. Cousins's main target this season has been Jordan Reed ($4,600), who gets his turn against the Saints' 32nd-ranked defense in schedule-adjusted points allowed to TEs. The Saints often put awful and excessively-penalized cornerback Brandon Browner in coverage on TEs, which is their way of saying they blew it by guaranteeing $7.8 million to in the offseason to a player whose only calling card is that he had the good fortune of playing across from Richard Sherman and Darrelle Revis for his entire career. DeSean Jackson ($5,400) has seen his price drop $1,400 since Week 1 despite not playing until last week -- he's a classic example of a price drop despite no change in role, which is something we want to aggressively target. New Orleans has allowed the most 40-yard passing plays and the second-most 20-plus yard passing plays in the league. Up-and-coming cornerback Delvin Breaux has played very well and will likely shadow Jackson, and while Breaux has flashed very good coverage skills at times this season, it hasn't always translated into limiting opposing WRs statistically. He followed T.Y. Hilton in Week 7 and forced 11 incompletions, but fell down twice on deep balls against the Colts and allowed Hilton to finish with a 4-150-2 line. The next week he followed Odell Beckham, who posted a 9-130-3 line. Reed was a popular play on Thursday FanDuel slates, but seven QBs were owned more than Cousins, while Jackson was under four percent owned.