Tournament Ownership Outlook - Week 1
Poinpointing players who return great value but are low-owned is the key to placing in -- and taking down entire -- tournaments. Every week, I'll be throwing away money entering a bunch of cheap Thursday GPPs on FanDuel with as many relevant players as I can, because FanDuel allows users to see ownership percentages of any player they roster.
To get an idea of the ownership percentages on other sites, we'll have to extrapolate the FanDuel results (and also account for pivots from the Thursday plays). Use common sense: if players have a large discrepancy between their FanDuel price and whatever site you're playing on, obviously you have to take that into account. Remember that FanDuel is 0.5 PPR, so pass-catching running backs may be more popular on full-PPR sites. also note that these lineups are from Thursday nights, so if injury news has broken since, it can change things up, especially for other players in the same salary range as the players affected by injuries. Finally, keep in mind that when Thursday plays are taken out of the equation, the rest of the players may not necessarily simply see proportional increases in ownership -- it's very possible that one player will see a disproportionate increase compared to the rest of the field.
Predicting ownership is more art than science, and this is by no means a perfect system. However, by looking at a ranked list of ownership percentages on a popular site like FanDuel, we can get a decent picture of how the consensus feels about all of the different plays in a given week across the industry.
I left the Thursday players in the list for reference purposes, and I'll write a few thoughts about what I think may change on Sunday, but generally, I will not be providing actual picks here. For those, check out my FanDuel GPP Breakdown and DraftKings GPP Breakdown, which both heavily take the information gleaned here into account.
Note: This week's contests were FanDuel's $1 Mini Dive and the $2 Snap.
Editor's Note: 4for4 has an ALL-NEW DFS SUBSCRIPTION! It includes our revolutionary Lineup Generator, Stack Value Reports, Ceiling & Floor Projections, GPP-Specific Articles, Ownership Outlooks, DFS Theory Articles, Lineup Construction Articles, a Downloadable .csv with Projections and Salary Data, and much more! DETAILS HERE! (NOTE: This article is part of our DFS subscription, but previous subs can enjoy it on the house this week! Previous subscribers don't worry, you'll get the same DFS content you got last season, but we think you'll want to UPGRADE to our DFS subscription because it takes our DFS content to the next level!)
QB
| QB | Own % |
|---|---|
| Tom Brady (Thu) | 24.4 |
| Sam Bradford | 13.6 |
| Ben Roethlisberger (Thu) | 12.0 |
| Tyrod Taylor | 9.0 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 6.6 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 5.1 |
| Tony Romo | 3.9 |
| Matt Ryan | 3.4 |
| Andrew Luck | 3.2 |
| Matthew Stafford | 2.3 |
| Carson Palmer | 2.3 |
| Eli Manning | 1.5 |
| Cam Newton | 1.5 |
| Peyton Manning | 1.5 |
| Drew Brees | 1.1 |
| Andy Dalton | 1.1 |
| Philip Rivers | 1.0 |
| Kirk Cousins | 0.9 |
| Alex Smith | 0.6 |
| Joe Flacco | 0.4 |
| Jay Cutler | 0.2 |
| TOTAL | 95.6 |
With Brady and Roethlisberger's 36 percent ownership off the board, expect Sam Bradford to be the top QB owned by a land slide, approaching 25 percent or more. As many users are only comfortable with stud QBs (hence the huge Brady and Big Ben numbers), it's possible Aaron Rodgers jumps into second place.
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