2015 Late-Risers: Where to Target Them?

2015 Late-Risers: Where to Target Them?

By John Paulsen (Senior Editor), last update Aug 28, 2015

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John was named the Most Accurate Fantasy Football Expert by FantasyPros for the 2010 and 2014 seasons, finished as runner-up in 2011 and 4th in both 2012 and 2015 for a total of five Top 5 seasons in the last six years. Cumulatively, John was the most accurate expert from 2010-15 while also winning the 2011 Fantasy Sports Trade Association award for the most accurate draft rankings. 

Follow John Paulsen on Twitter: @4for4_John.

Average Draft Position (ADP) data is a great tool, but it can be misleading this late in the draft season. There are players who are – for one reason or another – surging in the draft, and since ADP is historical, it may not accurately capture a player’s current stock. These players merit extra discussion, especially if we’re trying to target them on draft day.

Even identifying them takes some work. To that end, I compared MFL10 best ball ADP from August 8-21 to data from August 22-28. The MFL10 ADP user base is sharp, so owners drafting in typical friends and family leagues may find that players slip a bit further than the data below may show.

I ranked each player based on his difference in raw picks and by a percentage of his original ADP. I did this so we can look not only at the big movers, but also the big movers relative to their original ADP. For example, on the heels of the Jordy Nelson injury, Randall Cobb has seen a five-spot ADP move, but that’s pretty significant considering his original ADP was 2.10.

Note: Owners should always be aware of where the player is ranked at the site that hosts their league or draft. Many owners rely on site rankings to draft, so if a player is ranked a round higher at ESPN than his ADP at MFL, then he’s not likely to last that long.

The table shows the ADP data, and my observations are below.

 

Biggest Risers in MFL10 ADP
# Name Team Pos Pos ADP ADP Round Std Dev Old ADP Diff % Diff
1 Davante Adams GB WR 28 49 5.1 9.4 101 52 51%
2 Devin Funchess CAR WR 43 99 9.2 13.1 141 42 30%
3 Brandon Coleman NO WR 63 164 14.6 22.5 200 36 18%
4 Ronnie Hillman DEN RB 56 175 15.6 36.0 204 29 14%
5 Eddie Royal CHI WR 45 107 9.9 12.2 129 23 17%
6 Matt Jones WAS RB 51 146 13.2 23.9 171 25 15%
7 Markus Wheaton PIT WR 54 134 12.2 20.6 154 20 13%
8 Jeff Janis GB WR 67 179 15.9 29.7 210 31 15%
9 David Cobb TEN RB 43 104 9.7 15.1 120 16 13%
10 Darren McFadden DAL RB 44 114 10.5 16.0 131 16 12%
11 Mike Davis SF RB 68 199 17.5 30.9 221 23 10%
12 Richard Rodgers GB TE 25 178 15.8 18.8 203 25 12%
13 Greg Olsen CAR TE 4 54 5.5 8.0 61 8 12%
14 Alfred Blue HOU RB 41 92 8.7 15.2 103 11 10%
15 Chris Ivory NYJ RB 28 63 6.3 9.0 71 8 11%
16 Jonas Gray NE RB 53 165 14.8 28.2 179 14 8%
17 Brandin Cooks NO WR 13 26 3.2 4.4 31 5 16%
18 Arian Foster HOU RB 29 65 6.4 15.9 72 7 10%
19 Randall Cobb GB WR 7 17 2.4 2.7 22 5 24%
20 Leonard Hankerson ATL WR 77 204 18.0 24.4 219 15 7%
21 Phillip Dorsett IND WR 60 154 13.8 21.7 165 11 7%
22 John Brown ARI WR 34 79 7.6 8.1 86 7 8%
23 Ryan Mathews PHI RB 35 86 8.1 11.5 93 7 8%
24 Ben Watson NO TE 29 211 18.6 23.3 224 13 6%
25 Jordan Matthews PHI WR 14 30 3.5 3.8 34 4 13%
26 Doug Martin TB RB 26 56 5.7 9.2 61 5 8%
27 Nelson Agholor PHI WR 29 65 6.4 7.1 71 6 8%
28 Amari Cooper OAK WR 17 44 4.6 7.4 48 5 10%
29 Cecil Shorts HOU WR 76 198 17.5 25.1 210 12 6%
30 Jason Witten DAL TE 8 104 9.6 14.8 111 7 6%

 

 

A few observations:

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