FanDuel Week 8 Values & Top Plays
If you took one piece of advice from last week’s column, I hope it was to ignore recency bias and target Russell Wilson as your top QB option. As I explained, recency bias can cause the masses to overrate the results of the most recent game, giving us an opportunity ripe for exploitation. Sure enough, Wilson was only 4% owned in the Sunday Million and went nuts, racking up 37.12 points. Hatorade, The Sunday Million winner, rostered not only Wilson, but three other recommended plays from this space as well: DeMarco Murray, Golden Tate, and Jordan Reed.
Surveying this week’s options, what stands out is how tight FanDuel’s pricing has become. There’s not as many clear values to choose from as there were earlier in the season. To counter this, my recommendation is to reign in your diversification of lineups just a bit. I’d stick to my core plays in a higher percentage of lineups than usual, mostly diversifying with RBs in cash games (due to increased injury risk compared to other positions), and diversifying with QB/WR (or TE) stacks in GPPs.
Now on to the top plays; let’s get this money.
Editor's Note: You can get a free year of 4for4 by opening a new account and depositing at DraftKings, DraftDay or FanDuel. Details here.
QB Aaron Rodgers @ NO $10,000
At $10,000, Rodgers is more “top play” than “value”, but his matchup is too good to ignore. The Saints are a bottom-three team in QB aFPA, allowing 277.5 passing yards per game and 7.74 yards per attempt.
Packers-Saints opened with an over/under of 51, and has since risen to 55.5, with some sportsbooks going as high as 56.5. The game is expected to be close with the Saints installed as 1.5 point favorites, which means a shootout versus one of the league’s worst defenses is very much in the realm of possibility here. Rodgers has a 13:0 TD:Interception ratio and has thrown at least 3 TDs in each of his last four games since telling fans to “R-E-L-A-X”, and there’s no reason to think the cheese heads will need to stop relaxing now.
QB Drew Brees vs. GB $9,100
Brees is in play for all the same reasons I mentioned above about Vegas’s outlook for Packers-Saints. In addition, he and the entire Saints offense have historically played much better at home. Brees has thrown for at least 340 yards and 2 TDs in his last three games, and may have to do even more than that to keep pace with Rodgers and company.