FanDuel Divisional Round Values & Top Plays

FanDuel Divisional Round Values & Top Plays

By Chris Raybon (Senior Daily Fantasy Expert), last update Jan 8, 2015

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Chris Raybon is the Senior Daily Fantasy Editor at 4for4 Fantasy Football.

Follow Chris Raybon on Twitter: @ChrisRaybon.

The winning score in last week's Saturday Million was 149.66, and only 41 lineups out of 80,459 cracked a score of 140. The playoffs are likely to continue to be lower scoring than the regular season because of the limited roster choices. In other words, because of the limited selection of players, the amount of players to crack the 3x value multiplier threshold will be less in all salary tiers. This means you should be okay with using some sub-optimal values in order to get the right combination of high upside plays in your lineup.

I touched on this last week, but especially in a limited slate, the best way to stack may be to stack entire teams. Winning teams' passing and rushing stats are higher than losing teams, so you can base your lineups around, say, a Rodgers-Lacy-Nelson stack.

Here is the data for winning and losing teams in the playoffs since 2009:

NFL Playoff Statistics in 59 Games from 2009-Present
  Winning Teams Losing Teams
Rush Yd/G 138.19 97.27
Rush TD/G 1.32 0.64
Pass Yd/G 255.71 259.47
Pass TD/G 2.00 1.41
Pass Comp/G 20.29 22.88

Doug Baldwin, Legarrette Blount, Ronnie Hillman, Shane Vereen, Julius Thomas, and Richard Rodgers all cost under $6,000 and are members of teams favored to win this Sunday.

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QB Andrew Luck @ DEN $9,600

The popular choices seem to be Aaron Rodgers or Russell Wilson, but I believe Luck offers the most safety and upside.

In 17 games this season, Luck averaged 2.58 total (passing plus rushing) touchdowns per game, while the Broncos allow 20 percent more total touchdowns to quarterbacks than the league average. Rodgers averages slightly more at 2.66, but the Cowboys have only given up two percent more total touchdowns to quarterbacks than the league average. Rodgers also has added risk because his calf may not be 100 percent healthy.

As for Wilson, he’s a great GPP option, but his floor remains low. Wilson has scored 36 percent of his fantasy points via rushing statistics, which are more volatile than passing statistics. Furthermore, Wilson is playing a in game with a significantly lower over/under (39.5 as of this writing) than all the other games. He'll face a Panthers defense that ranks fifth in QB aFPA.


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