FanDuel Wild Card Values & Top Plays
Playing DFS on a small slate on FanDuel is a little different than playing during a full slate. There will be a lot of overlap in player ownership. Since cash games require you to have a score in roughly the top-50th percentile, and all of the top plays are likely to be owned more than 50 percent, there is more risk than reward in fading any of the top plays for cash games. I'd want Antonio Brown, Jeremy Hill, and Dez Bryant in all of my cash game lineups. Your cash games will come down to your value plays, and your final cash game results may be less indicative of your actual skill level than they would be on a large slate.
In tournaments, finding contrarian plays will be more difficult than usual. For this reason, pretty much every player is in play. You can use our FanDuel Value Reports to decide how much exposure you will have to each player based on how much value they present. In general, when pairing players in tournaments, you want to think of ways in which you can make a contrarian play where, if the play works out, it will also hurt much of the field. For example, let's say Antonio Brown has decent yardage but fails to score a touchdown. If you instead rostered Markus Wheaton and he scores a touchdown, he's a good bet to give you a greater return on salary than Brown. Another example would be using Giovani Bernard instead of Jeremy Hill.
Also, consider stacking an entire game or team,such as one team's quarterback, running back, and receivers. If one team, say, the Colts, blows their opponent out, it is conceivable that the team could end up combining for significantly more fantasy points than any other team. If you're trying to win the entire GPP, it will be difficult to make up the scoring difference with other combinations of players since there are limited options on the small slate.
Although every player is in play for GPPs, one player I specifically want to mention is Cam Newton ($8,300). While he's not the safest cash game play because of a reliance on rushing statistics and because Cardinals-Panthers has by far the lowest Vegas over/under this week, Cam is the best tournament option at quarterback, in my opinion. The Cardinals play a lot of man coverage on defense, which allows mobile quarterbacks opportunities to run while most of the defense's back is turned. Arizona has given up rushing yardage totals of 54 and 63 to Colin Kaepernick and 73 and 88 to Russell Wilson.
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QB Ben Roethlisberger vs. BAL $8,500
The Ravens’ patchwork secondary comprised of three undrafted free agent starters has held up the last three weeks to the tune of 191 passing yards and no TDs allowed to the likes of Blake Bortles, Case Keenum, and Connor Shaw. The odds aren’t in their favor to hold Ben Roethlisberger in check this week in which Pittsburgh’s offensive strength meets Baltimore’s defensive weakness.
Roethlisberger has thrown for 310 yards per game and the Ravens have allowed 270 yards per game, and rank 24th in QB aFPA. Since 2012, Big Ben has thrown 37 percent more touchdowns at home than on the road.