DraftDay Week 16 Values & Top Plays
Last week’s Geno-Decker stack had a solid output, and would have exploded had Decker not stepped out of bounds on what would have been a long TD.
The stack I’m eyeing this week is Jimmy Clausen ($7,500) with Alshon Jeffery ($12,800) against the Lions, who despite good aFPA rankings, have faltered a bit lately in terms of giving up fantasy production. Over the last five weeks, the Lions have given up the eigth-most fantasy points to QBs and the 10th-most fantasy points to WRs, including 7 TDs to WRs over that span.
A more contrarian stack that could also return good value is Clausen with Marquess Wilson ($7,150). This is one of the cheapest stacks possible on the slate. It is conceivable that Clausen and Wilson have some chemistry from when both worked with the Bears second team offense.
Finally, stacking Clausen with Martellus Bennett ($11,150) is another option, although Bennett is a bit pricy for my liking. Bennett did go 8-109 against the Lions a few weeks ago. The Lions are ranked 18th in TE aFPA on the season and have permitted the second-most points to TEs over the past five weeks.
As a reminder, stacking with an extremely low-end QB is a risky strategy, but in tournaments, not finishing in the top 10-20 percent is the same as finishing last. If you can get correlated production from a low-end QB, it gives you a leg up to not merely cash in the tournament, but win it.
Here's my stab at the Perfect Lineup:
- QB Drew Brees: At home in the game with the highest over/under of the week.
- RB LeVeon Bell: Has accounted for 58 percent of Steelers offensive TDs over past four weeks.
- RB C.J.Anderson: Bengals rank dead last in RB aFPA.
- WR Odell Beckham: Has 100 yards receiving in 5 of last 7 games and a 53 percent TD market share on the season.
- WR Antonio Brown: Averaging over 100 yards and 1 TD per game at home.
- WR Calvin Johnson: Went 11-146-2 a few weeks ago when these teams played.
- TE Rob Gronkowski: Jets allow second-most TDs to TEs.
- K Dan Carpenter: Raiders 30th in K aFPA.
- DEF Seattle Seahawks: On the road, but facing Ryan Lindley.
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QB Drew Brees vs. ATL $15,900
Brees averages 311 passing yards per game in 2014 and goes against an Atlanta defense that has given up eight 300-yard passing games and two more of over 290 yards. Saints-Falcons is tied for the highest Vegas over/under of the week at 55.5, with New Orleans projected to score 30 points. According to our projections, Brees is slated for the most passing yards and passing TDs this week of any QB.
QB Matthew Stafford @ CHI $13,850
Stafford has stud QB upside against a Chicago defense that has permitted passing TD totals of 6, 5 and 4 already this season, as well as allowing 3 in each of their last two games. Chicago surrenders 286 passing yards and 2.35 passing TDs per game, ranking second-to-last in QB aFPA. In 2014, Stafford has faced three other “green” QB aFPA matchups, throwing for at least 311 yards and 2 TDs in each one.
QB Jimmy Clausen vs. DET $7,500
Minimum salary QBs can be extremely valuable on DraftDay, where they cost only 7.5 percent of the salary cap. Our numbers bear that out, as Clausen is the top QB on our DraftDay Value Reports despite the fourth-lowest point projection among those at his position. He’s at home and has good weapons around him even without Brandon Marshall. 200 yards and a garbage-time score would pay off his value.