DraftDay Week 15 Values & Top Plays
Because of the major price discrepancies between maximum and minimum priced players on DraftDay, stacking cheaply can be a huge boon to your tournament prospects because it gives you correlated play and a chance to stock the rest of your roster with studs. For example, last week, Geno Smith and Percy Harvin combined for over 40 points, returning three times (or "3x") their combined salary (when dividing salary by 1,000).
This week, a Geno Smith ($7,550) stack is back in play with either Eric Decker ($8,350) or Jeremy Kerley ($4,800), who will replace the injured Harvin. The Titans rank 25th in QB aFPA and 24th in WR aFPA.
Another stack with some huge upside is Johnny Manziel at minimum price paired with Josh Gordon, who is undervalued at $10,300 after last week’s disaster. A Manziel-Gordon stack will be popular, so adding Jordan Cameron to the stack at $7,100, or stacking Manziel and Cameron instead could offer some differentiation.
Here’s my stab at this week’s Perfect Lineup:
- QB Drew Brees: A massive rebound is in order against a horrible Bears defense ranked 30th in QB aFPA.
- RB LeVeon Bell: At least 29 touches and 200 scrimmage yards in three games straight and counting.
- RB Matt Forte: Saints 6.25 yards per carry allowed over the past 3 weeks and Brandon Marshall’s injury may finally cause the Bears to recommit to the running game.
- WR Calvin Johnson: When healthy he’s always a great bet to lead WRs in scoring.
- WR Antonio Brown: Falcons are 27th in WR aFPA and the over/under in this game is over 50 points.
- WR Odell Beckham: 6 catches and 90 yards in 6 games straight since the bye.
- TE Jimmy Graham: 11 targets last week and the Bears are ranked last in TE aFPA.
- K Nick Folk: Against the grain pick, but the Titans are ranked 32nd in K aFPA and the Jets are road favorites.
- DEF Ravens: Jaguars are last in DEF aFPA.
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QB Peyton Manning @ SD $14,900
Manning’s price is at a new season-low; its previous low was $16,250. While the Broncos have gone run-heavy over the last two games, efficiency is more important than volume for QBs. With Julius Thomas coming back and Denver facing a better offense in the Chargers than they've faced the previous two weeks (Chiefs, Bills), Manning will likely return to putting up his usual numbers. San Diego ranks 19th in QB aFPA.
QB Eli Manning vs. WAS $11,850
The Redskins are ranked 32nd in QB aFPA and permit a 28-5 TD-interception ratio. Ever since Odell Beckham took on a prominent role in Week 7, Manning has thrown for at least 248 yards and 1 TD in every game. He shredded this same defense for 300 passing yards and 5 total TDs in Week 4, without Beckham.
QB Johnny Manziel vs. CIN $7,500
Manziel is a price-based punt play because he’s still minimum salary after being anointed the starter after salaries came out. He wouldn’t need to do more than crack double-digit fantasy points to hit cash game value, which he should be able to do because of his rushing prowess. With Josh Gordon and Jordan Cameron, he does have some upside, although the Bengals are a stingy pass defense, ranking 8th in QB aFPA.