DraftDay Week 14 Values & Top Plays
What stands out to me this week on DraftDay is the lack of salary relief RBs that I’d be comfortable rolling out in cash games. I think this is a week to pay up at RB and use two cheaper WRs in the flex.
In terms of cheap stacks, the obvious choice this week is Shaun Hill ($9,500)-Stedman Bailey ($6,900) for a total of $16,400. Bailey has a 12-189-1 line the past two weeks and looks to have emerged as Hill’s favorite target. The Redskins rank dead last in QB aFPA, which should help Hill’s cause. Hill and Bailey are both top-four at their position in our DraftDay Value Reports.
Another sneaky stack is Zack Mettenberger ($9,700)-Nate Washington ($6,050) for $15,750. Washington has topped 60 yards in each of the past three weeks, and now gets to play a full complement of snaps with Justin Hunter on IR. Washington had 9 targets last week, and if he and Mettenberger can connect for a TD, he will pay off his cost. The Giants have allowed 7 TDs to WRs over their past five games.
As always, here’s my stab at the Perfect Million:
- QB Aaron Rodgers: 32 TDs and 3 interceptions at home against a poor defense.
- RB Arian Foster: Averages more than one TD per game and has six 100-yard rushing games. The Jaguars have allowed 134.5 rushing yards, 1.5 rushing TDs, and 4.72 yards per carry to RBs over their last four games
- RB Le’Veon Bell: 32: The average amount of touches Bell has over his last two games and Cincinnati’s RB aFPA ranking.
- WR Jordy Nelson: After scoring a TD in Revis coverage, facing the Falcons defense should be like playing Madden on ‘rookie’.
- WR Demaryius Thomas: Only averaging 75 yards and 2 TDs per game over his last two, so Peyton will likely look to get him going.
- WR Calvin Johnson: Finally healthy and I’m not buying Tampa Bay’s defensive improvement.
- TE Rob Gronkowski: Hasn’t put up a goose-egg yet, unlike the other stud TE. Averages 6.5-93.5-0.75 since Week 5.
- K Stephen Gostkowski: Multiple FG attempts in 75 percent of games, and the Patriots score a ton of TDs.
- DEF San Francisco 49ers: Will look to take out the frustration of Seattle loss on likely walkover opponent Oakland.
QB Aaron Rodgers vs. ATL $17,750
Projections use some sort of average as a baseline, so the distribution of players’ projected point totals tend to be closer to the “average player” than actual weekly results. This week, for example, 22 of 32 (69 percent) of QBs are projected between 15.1 and 19.4 points. Consequently, it’s always noteworthy when one player’s projection is an outlier. Rodgers is projected for 25.5 DraftDay points, 3.7 more than the next-highest projected QB. With 32 TD passes and 3 interceptions on the year, he’s the top play of the week at QB.
QB Matthew Stafford vs. TB $12,400
Stafford’s salary is only $200 more than its season-low, and $3,550 less than its season-high. His price is near its low point at a great time, as Calvin Johnson finally looks to be healthy. Learning a new offense and sans a healthy Megatron for most of the season, it is understandable why Stafford hasn’t lived up to expectations. Stafford’s baseline is higher than his salary indicates, and Tampa’s defense is likely worse than their mediocre aFPA indicates.
QB Colin Kaepernick @ OAK $11,250
I’m not buying Kaepernick solely because of his favorable matchup against Oakland’s defense, which ranks 26th in QB aFPA. I’m buying him because his salary has dipped to its season-low; over $2,600 lower than his Week 9 season-high. DFS is not as much about “prediction” as it is about stacking the odds in your favor, and Kaepernick is in a great spot to return value at his modest price tag.