DraftDay Week 13 Values & Top Plays
This week, there are again a few potential cheap stacks that could pay off. Cheap stacks makes sense in tournaments. The cheapest stacks are very contrarian: Shaun Hill ($7,500)-Kenny Britt ($7,050) or Geno Smith ($8,250)-Percy Harvin ($7,550). These stacks are extremely risky and meant mostly for those who enter GPPs multiple times, but they are so cheap that they could give you a huge edge on the field if they hit.
The stack I have my eye on this week is are Drew Stanton ($10,100) with either MIchael Floyd ($7,300) or John Brown ($6,900). The Falcons are 23rd in both QB and WR aFPA, and Bruce Arians continues to rely on the down-field passing game no matter who is at QB.
Teddy Bridgewater ($10,759)-Charles Johnson ($6,600) is another appealing stack because Johnson is underpriced as a size-speed freak who looks to have taken over as the Vikings number one WR. Bridgewater has shown 300-yard upside and can add points on the ground. The Panthers are 23rd in QB aFPA and 28th in WR aFPA.
Here's my stab at Week 13's Perfect Million:
- QB Andrew Luck: Highest scoring fantasy QB versus 32nd-ranked QB aFPA defense.
- RB Eddie Lacy: Packers-Patriots has a colossal over/under of 58 and the Packers may run more in the red zone with Revis and Browner outside.
- RB Jamaal Charles: Chiefs will need a heavy dose of their best player to beat the Broncos at home.
- WR Antonio Brown: Tends to play better at home and is in a game with a high 54 point over/under.
- WR Demaryius Thomas: An every-week monster.
- WR Josh Gordon: 16 targets last week and may just be getting warmed up.
- TE Rob Gronkowski: Huge over/under makes Gronk a good bet for mutiple TDs.
- K Adam Vinatieri: Colts should control the time of possession and move ball versus Washington.
- DEF Miami Dolphins: They get the edge over the Giants versus Jaguars because the Dolphins are actually a good defense.
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QB Andrew Luck vs. WAS $17,800
Luck is first in QB scoring and the Redskins are dead last in QB aFPA, so he’s worth paying up for. Vegas agrees, as they project the Colts to score 30 points. Luck has thrown for 300 yards in 9 of 11 games and thrown for multiple TDs in 9 of 11 games.
QB Philip Rivers @ BAL $12,300
While traveling across country for a 1 PM start isn’t ideal, Rivers’ price dipping to its 2014 low in a matchup against a Ravens defense ranked 27th in QB aFPA suggests it’s time to buy him. WIthout CB Jimmy Smith in the lineup, the Ravens have coughed up 340 yards and 6 TDs to Ben Roethlisberger in Week 9 and 420 yards and 3 TDs to Drew Brees last week.
QB Shaun Hill vs. OAK $7,500
Whenever a QB is minimum-priced, he has to be considered as a punt play. Our DraftDay Value Reports back that up, as Hill projects as the best value on the entire slate, and has over a $100/point advantage over the next highest QB. Facing a Raiders defense allowing a 20-to-5 TD-to-interception ratio, Hill should be able to hit value as a 6.5 point home favorite.