DraftDay Week 11 Values & Top Plays
While most people in the DFS industry lamented over the disaster that was Justin Hunter last week, I wasn’t too concerned. I played Hunter mostly on DraftDay, and while his dud prevented me from any truly huge cashes in lineups that I used him, I cashed in almost every lineup I used him stacked with Zach Mettenberger (I hope you did, too), because the stack was so cheap it allowed me to fit basically any other combination of players I wanted.
Extremely cheap stacks are a very high-upside, low-risk move in tournaments, where finishing out of the top 20 percent is as good as finishing last. If you can secure a two-man QB-receiver stack who combine to cost less than the price of some stud players alone, you should go for it. Check out our DraftDay Value Reports and pay attention to the cheapest QBs, who are almost always the best project $/Point values, and then match them up with WRs or TEs high up in their respective section.
This week, the cheapest stack of note is Shaun Hill ($7,500)-Kenny Britt ($5,800) for a combined cost of $13,300. Hill is the number 2 QB value and Britt is the number 2 WR value, and the Broncos are ranked 22nd and 23rd in aFPA against QB and WR, respectively. There could be a lot of cheap garbage time production in this game, which would allow this stack to pay off handsomely.
Another cheap stack of note is Zach Mettenberger ($7,500)-Justin Hunter ($5,650) for a combined cost of $13,150. That’s right, I’m going right back to these guys. Young players will be inconsistent, so I’m not holding it against them, especially when they are facing a Steelers defense that allowed success to the Jets passing game last week. Our Value Reports agree, as Hunter is the top WR value and Mettenberger is the 4th-ranked QB value.
Some other cheap stacks not to sleep on:
- Robert Griffin ($8,600)-Pierre Garcon ($8,950),
- Teddy Bridgewater ($9,900)-Cordarrelle Patterson ($6,400) or Greg Jennings ($7,800)
- Josh McCown ($8,800)-Vincent Jackson ($8,600)
- Ryan Mallet ($7,500)-Andre Johnson ($9,300) or DeAndre Hopkins ($10,000)
Here's my stab at the Perfect Million:
- QB Peyton Manning: Rams 27th in QB aFPA and Manning has already thrown four-plus TDs 3 times.
- RB Matt Forte: On pace for 108 receptions and at home versus Vikings who rank 27th in RB aFPA.
- RB Mark Ingram: Seeing 25-plus touches per game going against Bengals, who are 28th-ranked in RB aFPA.
- WR Demaryius Thomas: Hasn’t produced less than 7 receptions or 105 yards since week 3, and the Rams are 30th in WR aFPA.
- WR Jordy Nelson: Second in NFL in red zone targets; Eagles 31st in WR aFPA.
- WR Julio Jones: Averages over 10 targets per game and the Panthers are on a short week.
- TE Rob Gronkowski: Pats-Colts is highest over/under of the week and Colts 28th in TE aFPA.
- K Stephen Gostkowski: Has been scoring like a RB or WR as of late.
- DEF Denver Broncos: Rams are dead least in DEF aFPA.
QB Tom Brady @ IND $15,500
Over his last five games with a healthier Gronk and better offensive line play, Brady averages 320 yards, 3.6 passing TDs, and 0.2 interceptions. He faces off against the Colts, who are only 23rd in QB aFPA, in a game with a huge 57 point Vegas over/under total. At over $2,000 cheaper than Luck, Rodgers, or Manning, Brady is one of the best plays on the board.
QB Matt Ryan @ CAR $12,300
Ryan averages 281 passing yards and 1.8 passing TDs per game, and the Panthers allow an average of 299 passing yards and 2.1 passing TDs per game. For a mid-tier price-tag, Ryan is a very solid choice versus a Panthers defense ranked 21st in QB aFPA.
QB Robert Griffin vs. TB $8,800
RG3 is the top overall player on our DraftDay Value Reports by a mile. Against a hapless Bucs defense ranked 29th in QB aFPA and allowing 285 yards and 2.1 TDs per game passing, he provides major salary relief and is almost a must-play in DraftDay’s two-QB format.