Streaming Tight Ends: Week 10 Targets

Streaming Tight Ends: Week 10 Targets

By TJ Hernandez (Associate Editor), last update Nov 4, 2014

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TJ is a former full-time poker player who has been playing fantasy football for more than a decade. After online poker was outlawed, TJ ended his poker career and dedicated himself to fantasy football. His background in poker statistics and analytics translates to success in both daily and season-long fantasy football.

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One of the main reasons that the TEBWW strategy is a viable one is that the tight end position is wildly volatile. Outside of the top 5 or 6 tight ends, an argument can be made to favor a matchup play over a blind plug and play option each week. Even the top tight ends are inconsistent on a week to week basis, which we can see if we look at player consistency through 8 weeks, using Coefficient of Variation (CV).

John Paulsen gives an extensive explanation of CV here, and Chris Raybon broke down position level CV in the preseason. In a nutshell, CV = standard deviation/PPG, and expressed as a percentage, the lower the CV, the more consistent the player. Now that every team has played at least 8 games, we can start to get an idea of which players are producing consistently and which ones are more volatile.

Below is the CV of the top 24 PPR tight ends through Week 9:


2014 Tight End Consistency


Martellus Bennett 16.3 6.7 41.03%
Travis Kelce 12.2 5.4 44.45%
Dwayne Allen 11.7 5.3 44.95%
Jason Witten 9.5 4.3 45.26%
Jared Cook 7.9 4.2 52.53%
Greg Olsen 14.3 8.1 56.41%
Rob Gronkowski 18.1 10.5 57.99%
Owen Daniels 10.5 6.1 58.05%
Zach Ertz 9.0 5.2 58.26%
Delanie Walker 13.3 8.2 61.75%
Lance Kendricks 6.8 4.4 64.10%
Jermaine Gresham 7.2 4.7 64.85%
Julius Thomas 16.0 10.4 64.88%
Jimmy Graham 15.9 10.4 65.84%
Coby Fleener 8.4 5.6 67.24%
Antonio Gates 14.8 10.2 69.05%
Charles Clay 8.3 5.8 69.78%
Scott Chandler 7.3 5.2 71.45%
Larry Donnell 12.5 9.5 76.14%
Niles Paul 8.7 7.0 80.62%
Heath Miller 9.6 8.7 90.72%
Jace Amaro 7.4 6.9 93.10%
Mychal Rivera 7.7 8.0 104.39%
Tim Wright 5.9 7.9 134.92%

The sample size is still small, but when deciding between two tight ends with similar projections in a given week, we can use their consistency score to decide which player we want to start, depending on whether we are looking for a safe, high floor play, or a more volatile play that has a better chance of a big game.

Before deciding if we want a consistent or volatile play, though, we still want to target our TEBWW picks with the most favorable matchups and heavy usage. To be eligible as a tight end streamer, players must be available in at least 40% of Yahoo leagues.

In Week 9, our top tight end streamer, Coby Fleener, finished as the TE4 on the week with 17.7 PPR points. Jermaine Gresham turned in a reasonable 8.6 PPR points, while Clay Harbor left the game shortly with an arm injury and failed to record a catch. For the season, our TEBWW picks are averaging 8.5 PPR FP/game, which equates to overall TE15 numbers, while our optimal plays are posting 14 PPR points per game, good enough to be the TE7 on the year.

Here are the tight end streamers I’m targeting in Week 10:


Owen Daniels vs TEN

2 weeks ago I touted Daniels as a guy to pick up and hold because he had such a favorable schedule leading up to his Week 11 bye. Unfortunately a knee injury made him miss Week 8 and left him as questionable for Week 9, but he came back against the Steelers and performed as expected. This week Daniels faces a Titans defense that ranks 21st in schedule adjusted fantasy points allowed to tight ends, giving up 14.2 PPR FP/game. Daniels has been one of the more consistent tight ends so far this year, but he is owned in just 30% of Yahoo leagues.


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