DraftKings Week 10 Values and Top Plays

DraftKings Week 10 Values and Top Plays

By Jonathan Bales (Daily Fantasy Expert), last update Nov 6, 2014

Jonathan Bales's picture

Jonathan Bales is a DraftKings Pro and the author of the Fantasy Football for Smart People book series. His latest book, How to Win at Daily Fantasy Sports, is a data-driven guide to winning on DraftKings. He is also (unofficially) sponsored by GrubHub.

Follow Jonathan Bales on Twitter: @BalesFootball.

In most of my work I tend to focus on “the extremes,” either taking in-depth looks at very specific questions or detailing more overarching, philosophical strategies. I think this “barbell” approach to fantasy football analysis creates the greatest return on our time.

I also believe it’s a natural extension of the 80/20 rule, i.e. 80 percent of results come from 20 percent of the work. If we break down the “valuable” 20 percent of anything and once again apply the 80/20 rule, it creates a Russian doll situation; we continue to get more valuable, actionable results by focusing on the most extreme ends of knowledge that we can gain—“the 20 of the 20 of the 20 of the 20”…ad infinitum.

I think this discussion is entirely pragmatic and can be applied to your daily fantasy football approach on DraftKings. When analyzing your strategies, I think it makes sense to focus on one extreme or the other; either question something very specific and actionable, such as how backup running backs perform when they get thrust into the starting lineup, or cast a much wider net and ponder something like “How can I take advantage of inefficiencies in other users’ beliefs?”

Or just start Justin Hunter in every lineup because I KNOW HE’S GONNA GO NUTS IN WEEK 10!!!

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DraftKings Week 10 Value Plays

High QB: Drew Brees, New Orleans vs San Francisco, $8200

Brees is the third-most expensive quarterback on DraftKings this week, but he’s $1200 cheaper than Aaron Rodgers and $1500 less expensive than Peyton Manning. The fact that Brees is ranked high in salary and has a pretty difficult matchup against the Niners will probably drive down his usage a little more than it should.

I’m a little undecided on Brees in cash games. I definitely think he’s undervalued, but you might prefer a quarterback facing an easier opponent. The fact that Brees has failed to top 293 passing yards only one time all season does ease my concerns a bit, though.


Low QB: Matt Ryan, Atlanta at Tampa Bay, $6300

Although I normally go high-priced at quarterback in cash games, Ryan is very tempting for me in Week 10. He and the Falcons have been pretty bad this year, but the price tag and matchup are ideal.

I think Ryan’s value is going to come down entirely to pass protection. The Bucs have only 13 sacks this year, and you have to think that Atlanta will have patched up some stuff coming out of their bye.

Note that I also have a man-crush on Mark Sanchez this week, too. He could easily have been listed in this spot.


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