Week 5 DraftDay Optimal Plays

Week 5 DraftDay Optimal Plays

By Jonathan Bales (Daily Fantasy Expert), last update Oct 3, 2013

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Jonathan Bales is a DraftKings Pro and the author of the Fantasy Football for Smart People book series. His latest book, How to Win at Daily Fantasy Sports, is a data-driven guide to winning on DraftKings. He is also (unofficially) sponsored by GrubHub.

Follow Jonathan Bales on Twitter: @BalesFootball.

Ever have a would-be big-time lineup just crushed by a single player? You know, your little brothers somehow convince you into “buying low” on Brandon Pettigrew and you end up with a big fat zero in a lineup that still scored 160 points. Those are just the worst.

We’ve all been there. Oh, you haven’t? Probably an only child.

Anyway, I typically discuss my favorite players at each position in this article, then offer an optimal lineup. Subscribers can still find my optimal heads-up and tournament DraftDay lineups below, but I’m going to give you a little something different today.

Below, I’ve listed my top players to AVOID this week on DraftDay. Why did I just capitalize AVOID (and again)? What am I, an ESPN commenter?

No, I’m capitalizing AVOID because I’ve done nothing but give you value plays so far this season, and I want to make sure we’re clear that these are players to AVOID. That way, I can AVOID nasty e-mails on Tuesday morning. Well, more than what’s typical.

All four of these guys are fool’s gold—sexy on the exterior but when you scratch away the surface, they have the potential to kill your childhood rock collection fantasy lineup. You can check out their value (or lack thereof) in the DraftDay Value Report.

By the way, 4for4 is running an awesome promo right now. This week only, you can get my daily fantasy book Fantasy Football for Smart People: How to Cash in on the Future of the Game for free if you purchase the 4for4 In-Season Package at a reduced price

Players to AVOID on DraftDay in Week 5

QB Peyton Manning @DAL $22500

I’d be shocked if Manning throws for more than 200 yards and one touchdown this week. Psych, but he still costs way too much. That price tag is $1700 more than any other quarterback and $4400 more than every quarterback other than Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers.

I still like Manning on other sites, but I don’t think you can have much exposure to him on DraftDay, even in tournaments. If you want a safe quarterback with a massive ceiling, just go with Rodgers ($20150) at home against the Lions.


RB Reggie Bush @GB $15150

One of the reasons I typically like Bush is that he can produce no matter the situation. If the Lions get down big to the Packers, you could argue Bush actually has more value since he’ll catch more passes, especially late in the game when Green Bay could be playing a prevent defense and allowing short throws to Bush underneath.

But at $15150, he’s somehow the fourth-priciest back on DraftDay. With Adrian Peterson, Doug Martin, and Alfred Morris on bye this week, there’s really not much out there at the running back spot. You can do better than Bush, though, who costs more than Marshawn Lynch, DeMarco Murray, and Arian Foster. Heck, he costs nearly $500 more than Ray Rice.


WR Demaryius Thomas @DAL $18200

Calvin Johnson is the most expensive receiver on DraftDay, as expected, but Thomas is right there behind him at No. 2. Is that appropriate? Maybe, maybe not, but he shouldn’t be nearly $2k more than the third-ranked receiver in Julio Jones. Thomas is even $2100 ahead of Dez Bryant.

It’s not that Thomas won’t have a big game—we pretty much know he’ll have quality numbers—but I don’t think he’ll give you much more than what you’re paying for. Dallas has done a really good job on “X” and “Z” receivers this year, instead struggling with slot receivers (Victor Cruz), tight ends (Antonio Gates), and backs (Danny Woodhead). For the price, both Wes Welker and Julius Thomas probably offer more value.


TE Brandon Pettigrew @GB $6650

Didn’t you read the first paragraph? Don’t ever start Brandon Pettigrew!


So there you have it. Four guys who have the potential to kill your profitability in Week 5. Let’s get to the real values. . .


DraftDay Optimal Lineups in Week 5

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